Natural Gas Price Forecast: Eight-Week Win Streak Snaps – 50-Day Critical Support

Thursday’s Sharp Continuation Lower

Bears stayed firmly in control Thursday, driving natural gas to a brief intraday low of $4.20 that undercut a higher swing low. Downward pressure persists at writing with price pinned near session lows, now actively testing the first key support zone from $4.24 to $4.15. The velocity of the decline following the confirmed 20-day average breakdown points directly toward the 50-day average at $4.05—soon to converge with a rising top channel line—as the next and more significant potential support area, if the current zone fails to attract buyers.

Multi-Timeframe Support Alignment

Last week’s low at $4.09 stands as a higher monthly low; a decisive break there would trigger a monthly reversal signal. Meanwhile, Thursday produced a five-week low hovering just above the rising 10-week average near $4.14, perfectly aligning with the current $4.24–$4.15 zone and dramatically increasing its technical importance as dynamic support.

First Weekly Loss in Eight Weeks

This week marks the first weekly decline in eight weeks, ending the unbroken pattern of higher weekly highs and lows. That alone represents a major sentiment shift, with the weekly reversal now confirmed and opening risk of a deeper correction toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.89 and the 200-day average near $3.79—though a meaningful bounce appears probable first.

Classic Downtrend Progression

As natural gas has sold off from last week’s multi-year high of $5.50 (since December 2022), each successive dynamic support line has flipped to resistance: first the 10-day average, then the 20-day average—both confirmed by subsequent daily highs. This textbook progression reinforces the short-term downtrend and keeps bears in the driver’s seat.

Highest-Probability Bounce Zone

The strongest and most likely bounce area remains the rising 50-day average at $4.05. Because it continues climbing, it may meet price closer to the lower end of the current $4.15 range, improving the odds of a successful defense and potential sustained bullish reaction into overhead resistance.

Outlook

Natural gas has shifted decisively bearish on the weekly timeframe with the eight-week higher low structure broken and classic support-to-resistance flips in place. Expect the $4.24–$4.15 zone to slow the decline, but the 50-day/channel confluence near $4.05 stands as the highest-probability bounce point; failure there opens a fast move toward $3.89–$3.79, while any rebound faces immediate resistance at the flipped 20-day and 10-day averages.

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