Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Cut Bets Offset Equity Market Rally

Market Overview

Gold’s three-day advance lost momentum in Asian trading as stronger global risk sentiment drew investors toward equities and away from safe-haven assets. The shift was fueled by optimism over a potential three-month extension to the US-China trade truce and anticipation of Friday’s US-Russia summit, which markets hope will yield progress on the Ukraine conflict.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs for the second consecutive session, with most Asian benchmarks tracking those gains, barring Japan’s Nikkei 225.

Despite this, gold continues to find underlying support from a weaker US dollar and persistent expectations of monetary easing. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 25-basis-point rate cut in September as the base case, with markets pricing in two additional cuts before year-end.

July’s Nonfarm Payrolls undershot expectations, reinforcing views of a cooling labor market. Treasury yields remain subdued ahead of the US Producer Price Index release, which could shape near-term rate cut probabilities.

Silver Tracks Gold’s Moves Amid Risk-On Backdrop

Silver mirrored gold’s pullback, with prices easing as risk appetite stayed firm across equity markets. The same macro drivers—a trade truce extension and diplomatic overtures between Washington and Moscow—have tempered safe-haven demand for the metal.

However, silver’s downside remains cushioned by the broader monetary policy outlook and weaker yields. Like gold, it benefits from expectations that the Fed will adopt a more accommodative stance in the months ahead.

Any signs of slowing industrial demand have been offset by the metal’s dual role as a monetary hedge, which keeps it sensitive to shifts in rate expectations.

Outlook: Balancing Risk Appetite Against Policy Easing

For both gold and silver, near-term direction hinges on the balance between strong risk sentiment and dovish central bank expectations. While optimism over trade and diplomatic developments has dampened safe-haven flows, the prospect of US rate cuts, subdued Treasury yields, and a softer dollar provides a counterweight.

Traders will focus on upcoming US inflation and growth data for confirmation of the Fed’s policy path. If expectations for deeper rate cuts gain traction, both metals could see renewed buying interest despite the current risk-on bias in broader markets.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is consolidating above $3,337 support, with a rebound targeting $3,376–$3,436 if momentum builds. Silver holds above $38.15, aiming for $38.73–$39.52 while broader uptrends remain intact.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is consolidating above a key ascending trendline, with the 2-hour chart showing price holding near $3,337 support. The 50-EMA ($3,360) and 100-EMA ($3,360) are slightly above, acting as near-term resistance. RSI is hovering around the midline, signaling balanced momentum after a recent pullback.

A rebound from the current support could drive price toward $3,376, followed by $3,409 and $3,436 if bullish momentum builds. However, a break below $3,337 would expose $3,312 and potentially $3,288.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver’s rally from early August has paused near resistance, with price still supported by a rising trendline. The 50-EMA at $38.17 and 100-EMA at $38.03 remain below, keeping the short-term bias bullish. Immediate support sits at $38.15, with stronger levels at $37.56 and $37.17.

Resistance is seen at $38.73, then $39.14 and $39.52. The RSI has eased from overbought, signaling a slowdown in momentum.

A rebound from $38.15 could retest $38.73 and potentially target higher levels, while a close below this point risks a pullback toward $37.56. The broader uptrend holds as long as the price stays above $37.17.