XRP News Today: ETF Inflows Lift Outlook as Traders Eye $2.35 Test

XRP resumed its upward momentum as inflows into XRP-spot ETFs tilted the supply-demand balance in the token’s favor. Four ETF issuers have launched XRP-spot ETFs to date, reporting eight consecutive days of net inflows, setting the tone for the Wednesday session.

However, profit-taking capped Wednesday’s gains as whales reportedly sold over 180 million tokens over 72 hours.

Renewed bets on a December Fed rate cut added to the bullish sentiment, sending Bitcoin (BTC) above $90,000. While XRP briefly decoupled from BTC this week, Bitcoin remains the market barometer for now, driving broader market sentiment.

XRP-Spot ETFs and First-To-Market Advantage

On Tuesday, November 25, XRP-spot ETFs reported net inflows of $35.41 million, down sharply from $164.04 million of inflows the previous day. Nevertheless, XRP-spot ETF issuers registered net inflows of $622.11 million since launch.

However, inflows into the Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) have yet to reflect Franklin Templeton’s prominence in the ETF space, leaving demand short of market expectations. The 19th largest ETF issuer by assets under management has reported net inflows of $69.72 million into XRPZ.

Notably, XRPZ trails the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC), which has accumulated net inflows of $329.39 million since launching on November 14. XRPC saw net inflows of $243.05 million on day one, highlighting the first-to-market advantage.

According to VettaFi, Canary Capital ranks #153 on the ETF issuer Assets Under Management (AUM) league table, with $349.25 million in AUM. Notably, the ETF issuer has climbed from #238 since launching XRPC.

Inflow trends for Wednesday, November 26, are likely to be pivotal for XRP and rising expectations of a decoupling from BTC. Bitcoin outperformed XRP on Wednesday, November 26, after net inflows of $128.7 million into BTC-spot ETFs on Tuesday, November 25, which surpassed demand for XRP-spot ETFs.

Market intelligence platform Santiment commented on current crypto market conditions, stating:

“Despite a decent rebound to start the week, crypto markets still show significant short and mid-term losses among average wallet investments. According to network data, average returns of wallets active in the past 30 days are: BTC: -6.1% (mild undervaluation); XRP: -4.7% (very slight undervaluation).”

BTC’s greater undervaluation is likely to have narrowed after Wednesday’s stronger gains, leaving flows into spot ETFs to dictate near-term price trends.

US Jobs Data Leaves December Fed Rate Cut Bets Intact

While demand for spot ETFs remains crucial, US economic data and market sentiment toward a December Fed rate cut continued to influence price trends.

US jobs data pointed to a resilient labor market on Wednesday, November 26. Initial jobless claims dropped from 222k (week ending November 15) to 216k (week ending November 22). Typically, tighter labor market conditions support a more hawkish Fed rate path. However, the weekly data failed to impact market bets on the Fed lowering interest rates next month.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December cut slipped from 85.2% on November 25 to 84.7% on November 26. For context, the chances of a December rate cut stood at 91.7% on October 24 before plunging to just 30.1% on November 19.

XRP’s recent price action suggested traders were more concerned about the Fed’s policy stance than demand for spot ETFs. Nevertheless, traders’ focus will likely return to the supply-demand trajectory given that markets are now widely expecting the Fed to ease policy.

A more dovish Fed rate path would likely boost demand for spot ETFs and XRP. The token remains well below late October’s high of $2.6972, indicating scope for a stronger recovery subject to XRP-spot ETF flows.

Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels

XRP rose 0.97% on Wednesday, November 26, partially reversing the previous day’s 1.26% loss to close at $2.2231. The token underperformed BTC and the broader market, which advanced 3.60% and 2.83%, respectively.

Despite Wednesday’s recovery, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias.

Looking ahead, several key events are likely to influence XRP’s price outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.2, $2, $1.9112, and $1.8205
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.3713.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.5218.
• Resistance levels: $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch in the Sessions Ahead

Near-term price events include:

• XRP-spot ETF daily inflows.
• Blue-chip companies’ stances on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.2

• XRP-spot ETFs report net outflows.
• The US Senate roadblocks crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.

These bearish events could drag XRP toward $2.2. A drop below $2.2 would expose the $2.0 psychological support level. If breached, the $1.9112 support level and lower trendline would be the next key support levels.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $2.35 Opens

• XRP-spot ETFs report strong inflows.
• Blue-chip companies acquire XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the US Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.

A break above the November 24 high of $2.2872 could open the door to testing the $2.35 resistance level and the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA could open the door to testing the upper trendline, with $2.5 the next key resistance level.

Outlook: $2.35 Resistance Test Hinges on Spot ETFs

The launch of XRP-spot ETFs coincided with renewed bets on a December Fed rate cut, creating a perfect storm for the token. Robust inflows into spot ETFs are likely to drive the token toward its October highs, bringing $3 into play. However, breaking down resistance at $2.35 will be key in the coming sessions.

Meanwhile, legislative developments will also influence sentiment. Traders should continue to closely monitor the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill, another key price catalyst.

The next 72 hours could decide whether XRP decouples from BTC and reclaims $3.0.