Natural Gas Price Forecast: Three-Week Tight Range – Breakout or Sharp Pullback

Wednesday’s Inside Day and Weekly Picture

Upward pressure persisted on Wednesday with natural gas forming an inside day and showing gains, the high of $4.64 once more recognizing the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This week is on track to close as an inside week largely near recent highs, reflecting underlying strength. Dynamic support near the 20-day average, now at $4.41 and rising, remains the key near-term level and continues to hold.

The 10-day average failed as support early last week, but the 20-day has proven itself with a successful test and bounce yesterday. A higher swing low of $4.24 was set during the minor pullback after the $4.69 trend high and it now forms a critical part of the near-term uptrend structure.

Consolidation and Resistance

Despite strong underlying demand, natural gas has been consolidating near the $4.69 trend high for almost three weeks without breaking through. A bullish reversal was signaled on the advance above the June swing high of $4.15 and confirmed with several weekly closes above that level. As long as the price stays above the 20-day average and then the $4.24 swing low, the bullish posture is maintained with only a minor pullback seen so far.

Rally Magnitude and Risk

Natural gas completed a 62% rally from the October 17 higher swing low at $2.89 to the recent high, nearly matching the final leg to the March $4.90 peak. Combined with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement and prolonged consolidation, the risk of a sharp downside move is increasing even with demand still strong.

Outlook

Natural gas retains a bullish stance above the 20-day at $4.41 and the $4.24 swing low, with the inside week signaling underlying strength. A decisive push above $4.69 opens new highs; failure risks a test of $4.24 and deeper retracements. The weekly close will clarify whether buyers can sustain control.

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