Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Minutes, Powell Speech in Focus

Market Overview

Gold gained traction during Asian trading on Tuesday, recovering from a two-week low as investors positioned ahead of a potential U.S. Federal Reserve policy shift. Market participants are pricing in an 85% probability of a September rate cut, according to CME FedWatch data, with expectations of at least two quarter-point reductions by year-end.

The renewed appetite for the non-yielding asset reflects both monetary policy dynamics and persistent concerns over global growth.

“The Fed appears cornered between stubborn inflation and slowing activity, and that’s supportive for gold in the medium term,” said one market strategist. With U.S. Treasury yields capped and risk appetite subdued, investors have been quick to reallocate capital toward traditional safe-haven assets.

Inflation Signals and Dollar Strength Pressure Metals

The rally in gold remains tempered by the U.S. dollar’s continued advance. Recent data shows U.S. inflation expectations climbing, with the University of Michigan survey reporting a jump in one-year outlook to 4.9% from 4.5%, and a rise in five-year expectations to 3.9% from 3.4%.

These figures mark the sharpest monthly gain since early 2022, reinforcing speculation that the Fed may proceed cautiously with easing.

Silver has struggled under similar conditions, slipping modestly as stronger dollar flows and rising inflation expectations eroded demand. Still, analysts note that silver’s industrial demand component, tied to renewable energy and electronics, continues to provide a long-term buffer against broader weakness.

Investors Await Fed Minutes and Jackson Hole

The near-term outlook for precious metals hinges on upcoming U.S. central bank signals. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July Minutes on Wednesday will be closely scrutinized for guidance on policy direction. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week is widely expected to outline the central bank’s tolerance for inflation risks versus growth concerns.

Global purchasing managers’ indices due Thursday will add another layer of insight into economic momentum, with traders watching for any signs of contraction across major economies.

For now, gold and silver remain caught between the push of safe-haven demand and the pull of a firm U.S. dollar, leaving markets braced for volatility in the days ahead.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is consolidating above $3,331 support, capped near $3,357 resistance. Silver holds at $38.00 with support at $37.87 and resistance at $38.29, awaiting breakout cues from Fed signals.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold prices are consolidating just above $3,331, with the chart showing a clear ascending trendline providing short-term support. Price action remains capped near $3,357, where repeated rejections highlight strong overhead resistance. Both the 50-EMA ($3,344) and 100-EMA ($3,349) are flattening, reinforcing the current indecision.

Momentum signals remain neutral. The RSI at 49 hovers near the midpoint, suggesting neither buyers nor sellers hold control, while the MACD shows limited momentum shift.

If gold breaks below the trendline at $3,331, downside targets emerge at $3,312 and $3,290. Conversely, a breakout above $3,357 could open a path toward $3,375 and $3,409.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is consolidating near $38.00, holding just above its ascending trendline support at $37.87. The 50-EMA at $38.05 and 100-EMA at $38.02 are converging, reflecting indecision and reinforcing a tight range. Immediate resistance stands at $38.29, where repeated rejections highlight supply pressure.

Momentum remains neutral. The RSI at 48 sits near equilibrium, while price action forms small-bodied candles that signal hesitation. If silver breaks below $37.87, downside targets emerge at $37.52 and $37.12. A breakout above $38.29, however, would shift momentum toward $38.71 and $39.14.