Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Pause Bets Fuel Breakout Momentum

Market Overview

Gold and silver are attracting renewed institutional interest as expectations around US monetary policy continue to shift. Recent data suggest inflation pressures are moderating while economic growth shows signs of cooling. That combination has kept real yields constrained, prompting investors to reassess precious metals as strategic portfolio components rather than short-term tactical trades.

Despite thinner liquidity heading into the holiday period, demand for gold and silver has remained steady. Positioning appears driven more by asset allocation decisions than speculative flows, reflecting a broader recalibration toward assets that tend to hold value during macroeconomic transitions.

Federal Reserve Signals Shape Expectations

Federal Reserve communication remains a central driver of sentiment. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack recently stated that interest rates are “in a good position to pause,” highlighting that policymakers are evaluating the cumulative impact of the 75 basis points of rate cuts delivered earlier this year. That assessment has encouraged markets to temper expectations for immediate easing while maintaining confidence in a more accommodative policy path over the medium term.

Market pricing reflects that balance. The CME FedWatch Tool shows only a 21% probability of another rate cut at the January meeting, yet expectations for stable or lower rates over time continue to underpin demand for non-yielding assets.

Growth Concerns and Defensive Allocation

US economic indicators are adding to the cautious outlook. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down to 52.9 in December, highlighting persistent fragility in consumer confidence. With further data releases approaching, including the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and preliminary GDP figures, investors remain focused on growth risks.

Against this backdrop, gold and silver continue to serve as core holdings within risk-managed portfolios, offering diversification as markets adjust to slower growth and shifting policy dynamics.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above $4,380, targeting $4,440–$4,485, while silver stays supported near $67.00, with upside focused on $70.20–$71.90 amid steady momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,415 on the 4-hour chart after extending its breakout from a rising channel that has guided price action since late November. The latest bullish candles closed near their highs, showing follow-through buying rather than a short-lived spike. Price is firmly above the former resistance at $4,380, which has now flipped into support, keeping the short-term structure constructive.

The ascending channel remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows clearly visible. The 50-EMA near $4,305 continues to slope higher and provides dynamic support, while the 100-EMA around $4,160 reinforces the broader uptrend.

From a Fibonacci perspective, the rally is working through an extension zone, with upside levels lining up near $4,440 and $4,485. RSI is holding around 60–62, signaling steady momentum without signs of exhaustion. Trade idea to buy pullbacks toward $4,380, targeting $4,440–$4,485, with invalidation below $4,300.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $68.95 on the 4-hour chart, extending its advance within a well-defined rising channel that has guided price since early December. The latest bullish candles closed near their highs, showing steady follow-through buying rather than a sharp exhaustion move. Price is holding comfortably above the former resistance zone at $66.90–$67.00, which has now turned into support and reinforces the bullish structure.

The ascending trendline remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows clearly visible. Silver is also trading above the 50-EMA, which is rising toward the mid-channel area, while the broader trend remains supported by distance from the 100-EMA below.

From a Fibonacci perspective, the move is working through extension levels, with the next upside targets near $70.23 and $71.90. RSI is hovering in the 60–65 range, suggesting healthy momentum without signs of overheating. Trade idea is to buy pullbacks toward $67.00, targeting $70.20–$71.90, with invalidation below $65.80.