Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Split Caps Gains as $4,360 and $72.90 Levels Matter

Market Overview

Gold closed near $4,310 on December 31, with prices steady on Thursday as markets remain closed for the New Year holiday on January 1. The latest move reflects positioning after the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting minutes, rather than fresh price discovery.

Safe-Haven Demand Remains a Structural Tailwind

The minutes revealed a Fed that’s totally split: some members are talking about letting the rate cuts ride after the three they did in 2025, while others still see room for more easing if inflation keeps trending lower. Lack of clear direction has really slowed gold’s short-term progress, even though it ended 2025 up a whopping 64 percent, its strongest annual performance in decades.

Safe-haven demand remains a significant long-term tailwind for gold and, of course, there’s lots more going on beyond the Fed’s policy moves that’s keeping gold in demand as a safe-haven asset. The global security situation remains tense, which is keeping people flocking to gold when they get nervous, even as markets are a bit thin and people take profits at the end of the year.

Central Bank Buying Anchors the Long-Term Trend

Central Bank Buying has helped keep the longer-term trend going strong and underpinning the whole gold price rally is the fact that central banks have kept buying gold & that the gold-backed ETFs are still holding pretty strong. All this steady demand has really helped absorb any volatility that’s come up and keep prices supported above some key long-term averages.

When the markets finally get back to work after the New Year break, you can bet that traders will be focusing hard on Fed guidance, real interest rates, and geopolitics to see if gold can finally make a move above where it is now or if it just goes sideways for a bit before deciding which way to go next.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds near $4,310 after the Dec 31 close. On reopening, a break above $4,360 targets $4,400–$4,450, while a slip below $4,280 risks $4,255 support.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold closed around $4,323 on December 31st. The markets are closed for the New Year holiday on January 1st, so we don’t have any fresh action. Looking at XAU/USD from a technical standpoint, things are quiet right now with the price just sitting above a trendline that has been guiding us upwards since mid-December.

That top at $4,550 did get pulled back a bit, to $4,280. When the markets do open up again, a clear push above $4,360 could start to get us moving upwards again, even all the way to $4,400-$4,450.

If we break below $4,280, we could be vulnerable to a drop to $4,255. The trade idea could be to buy above $4,280 with a target of $4,400 and a stop loss of around $4,240.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver closed out the year at $71.64 on Dec 31st, after being unchanged today, the markets being shut for the New Year holiday on Jan 1st. The price is just below the 50-day EMA at around $72.90, & the 200-day EMA at $68.00 is still providing a solid base for the overall upward trend we’ve seen since the start of December.

The RSI has slipped into the lower 40s, which means some of the heat is being taken out of the market, but it’s far from crashing. As markets come back to life, a break above $72.90 could see the price shoot back up to the $75-$78 mark, while a break below $70.00 could signal a more significant pullback to $68.05.

The trade idea is to go long near the $70-$71 mark, take profits at $75, and keep the stop-loss just below $68.