Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Slips Ahead of CPI, Silver Stays Bullish

Market Overview

Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to extend its upward trend and lost some ground, hitting an intraday low of $4,575. However, the reasons for its latest decline can be tied to multiple factors, including a positive tone in the equity markets as well as renewed strength in the US dollar ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures.

Gold prices hit a fresh record high of $4,630 in the previous session but were unable to extend the rally and are now trading in the red. In contrast to this, the ongoing tensions between Iran and the US could boost safe-haven assets, such as gold, and help limit further losses.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Fed Concerns, Pressuring Gold

Despite ongoing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar has managed to regain some strength and is trading slightly higher. Although, the worries over political pressure on the central bank had weighed on the greenback and boosted demand for safe-haven assets like gold, but the dollar is now recovering as markets calm down.

That said, the situation is not completely settled. Still, uncertainty remains after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he is facing a politically motivated criminal investigation, following criticism from President Trump over the Fed’s refusal to cut interest rates.

However, the US dollar has managed to rise because markets had already priced in earlier fears. The focus is now shifting to the upcoming US CPI inflation data on Tuesday, As a result, gold is facing mild pressure from a stronger dollar.

Geopolitical Tensions Support Gold Despite Recent Pullback

On the geopolitical front, gold is seeing some decline after recent gains, though tensions around the world still provide underlying support. However, the issues like the US incursion in Venezuela, President Donald Trump’s threat of military action over unrest in Iran, the White House’s interest in acquiring Greenland, and the Russia-Ukraine war have kept safe-haven demand higher.

Moreover, Trump also warned that any country doing business with Iran could face a new 25% tariff on exports to the US. Therefore, the gold price is supported by geopolitical tensions, but recent declines show a slight pullback after earlier gains.

Impact of Upcoming US CPI Data on Gold and the Dollar

Looking forward, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, keeping the yearly rate steady at 2.7%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to hold at 2.7% year-on-year, showing only a slight increase.

Any signs of higher-than-expected inflation will likely boost the US dollar and put pressure on dollar-denominated assets like gold in the short term.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,580 on the 4-hour chart after pulling back from the recent peak around $4,628. Price remains above a rising trendline from late December, keeping the broader structure bullish despite short-term consolidation. Recent candlesticks show smaller bodies with upper wicks, pointing to profit-taking rather than aggressive selling.

Technically, gold is holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,545, with deeper support at $4,518 (50% Fib) and $4,492 (61.8% Fib). Resistance sits at $4,628, followed by $4,685. The RSI near 60 signals cooling momentum without trend exhaustion. The trade idea to buy pullbacks near $4,545, targeting $4,680, stop below $4,490.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $85.40 on the 4-hour chart after breaking above the prior resistance zone around $82.65, confirming bullish continuation. Price remains inside a rising channel and above the ascending trendline from December, keeping trend structure intact. Recent candles show small bodies near highs, signaling consolidation rather than reversal.

Technically, former resistance at $82.65 now acts as support, followed by trendline support near $80.00. Upside resistance is seen at $86.85, then $90.50. The 50-EMA continues to slope higher, while the RSI near 65 reflects strong but controlled momentum. The trade idea is to buy pullbacks near $83.00, targeting $88.00, stop below $80.00.