Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Metals Slip as Risk Appetite Rises, Fed Cut in Focus

Market Overview

Gold and silver retreated on Tuesday as improving risk appetite in global equity markets reduced demand for defensive assets. Asian stocks opened higher after Monday’s sharp decline, easing investor caution and pressuring precious metals at the start of the session.

The shift toward risk-on positioning limited safe-haven flows, although traders remained hesitant to drive a deeper selloff ahead of key US economic releases.

Dovish Fed Expectations Offer Support for Precious Metals

Expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve continued to provide a counterbalance to the early weakness. Market pricing shows investors are increasingly convinced of another rate cut before year-end, supported by recent comments from central bank officials signaling concern over slowing economic momentum.

Fresh data reinforced that view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2, down from 48.7, underscoring persistent contraction in the sector. The softer outlook kept the US dollar from extending its modest overnight recovery, helping stabilize gold and silver as the session progressed.

“The economic picture continues to soften, and policy may need further adjustment,” one strategist noted, reflecting a growing consensus in the market.

Geopolitical Negotiations Add a Layer of Uncertainty

Broader geopolitical discussions also played a role in preserving underlying safe-haven demand. Diplomatic efforts in Europe and ongoing negotiations among major powers have added uncertainty to the global outlook, giving investors reason to maintain a measured stance toward risk. While not triggering aggressive inflows into metals, the backdrop has helped prevent sharp downside moves.

Investors Look to Upcoming US Data for Direction

Attention now shifts to a series of high-impact US data releases, including the ADP employment report and the PCE Price Index—key indicators of labor strength and inflation trends.

Their outcome is likely to influence expectations around Fed policy and set the tone for gold and silver in the coming days. Traders are positioning cautiously, awaiting clear signals before making large directional commitments.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may consolidate between $4,193–$4,257 in the short term, while silver holds within $56.50–$58.87. A break above resistance targets $4,317 for gold and $60.07

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is pulling back toward $4,213 after testing resistance near $4,257, with price still moving inside a rising channel. The 50-EMA is holding as the first layer of support, while the 200-EMA remains well below the market, keeping the broader trend tilted upward. A sustained move above $4,257 would reopen the path toward $4,317 and the upper channel boundary.

If the pullback deepens, the $4,193–$4,136 region becomes the key area to watch, as a break below this zone would signal weakening momentum.

RSI has slipped from recent highs, showing cooling demand but not a full reversal. As long as gold holds the channel floor, the structure remains constructive.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading around $57.28 after pulling back from the $58.87 zone, with price still moving inside a rising channel. The 50-EMA near $55.21 is the first major support, while the 200-EMA at $52.24 remains far below, confirming a steady broader uptrend.

If buyers push price back above $58.87, the next levels to watch are $60.07 and $61.38 along the channel’s upper boundary. If the decline continues, the midline of the channel near $56.50 becomes the key area to monitor. A drop below this level would suggest slowing momentum.