Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Metals Stall Ahead of ADP Jobs and PMI Reports

Market Overview

Gold and silver extended their retreat on Tuesday as the dollar steadied near a three-month high, supported by tempered expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 65% probability of a December rate cut, down from over 90% last week, following comments from Chair Jerome Powell, who said another reduction was “not a foregone conclusion.”

The central bank’s latest move marked its second rate cut of 2025, yet policymakers remain divided over whether monetary easing should continue amid slowing but resilient U.S. growth. “Markets are recalibrating for a slower pace of cuts, with Powell’s remarks signaling a cautious tone,” said one market strategist.

Investors Await Key Economic Data

Traders are now turning attention to this week’s economic indicators for confirmation of the Fed’s stance. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Report due Wednesday, alongside ISM Services PMI, could provide critical insight into labor strength and inflation persistence.

Earlier Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker at 48.7, below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, while ISM Manufacturing Prices rose to 58.0, signaling ongoing cost pressures. Vehicle sales also softened, falling to 15.3 million from 16.4 million, adding to concerns about consumer demand.

With several FOMC members, including Bowman, Daly, and Cook, scheduled to speak this week, markets may see further volatility depending on their commentary on inflation and growth.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is expected to trade between $3,885 and $4,045, consolidating amid Fed uncertainty, while silver may remain under pressure near $47.50–$48.20, facing limited upside without stronger demand cues.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is consolidating near $3,985, holding above the ascending trendline that has guided the market since mid-September. Price action is trapped between the 50 EMA ($4,003) and 200 EMA ($4,033), signaling a tight range and fading volatility.

The $4,045 level remains immediate resistance, while $3,887 serves as key support. The RSI at 46 shows neutral momentum, hinting at hesitation among traders.

A sustained close above $4,045 could open a path toward $4,144, while a break below $3,887 may expose $3,791. For now, gold remains in a holding pattern, awaiting a catalyst to break its two-week consolidation phase.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $47.65, slipping below both the 50 EMA ($48.32) and 200 EMA ($48.66), which reinforces short-term bearish pressure. The chart reveals a triple top pattern around $49.40, a strong resistance zone that has repeatedly capped upside attempts.

Price action remains below a descending trendline, confirming continued selling interest. The RSI at 36 shows weakening momentum, suggesting potential for further downside unless buyers reclaim control above $48.20.

A break below $47.28 could accelerate losses toward $46.00, while recovery above $48.70 would neutralize bearish bias and open the door for a retest of the $49.40 resistance region.