Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Momentum Builds Ahead of GDP and PCE Reports

Market Overview

Gold advanced to a two-week high on Tuesday as markets reacted to the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The decision by President Donald Trump reignited debate over the Fed’s independence, a concern that has historically weighed on monetary credibility.

Analysts warn the move could erode institutional trust at a moment when investors are already hypersensitive to policy shifts, prompting renewed demand for gold as a defensive asset.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Gain Traction

Markets are now increasingly pricing in a September rate cut. At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation risks persist but emphasized weakening labor conditions as a growing challenge.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also highlighted looming liquidity pressures, signaling potential reliance on the central bank’s repo facility in September.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut stands at 84.3%, up from 61.9% a month ago. The expectation of looser policy has bolstered both gold and silver, which benefit from lower yields and a softer dollar outlook.

Data-Driven Risks Ahead for Precious Metals

Investors now turn to upcoming U.S. economic data to gauge whether the rally in precious metals can hold. Tuesday brings consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and the Richmond Fed index.

Later in the week, the focus shifts to the second-quarter GDP estimate and the July PCE Price Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

A stronger-than-expected showing in growth or inflation would reinforce dollar strength and cap gains in gold and silver. Conversely, weaker data would strengthen the case for a September cut, extending support for safe-haven demand.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above $3,350 support, targeting $3,402–$3,433 if momentum persists. Silver steadies near $38.70, with resistance at $39.10–$39.52, while dips below $38.18 risk pullbacks toward $37.55.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is consolidating near $3,378 after breaking above a descending trendline, signaling renewed bullish momentum on the 4-hour chart. The move was supported by the 50-EMA ($3,351) and 100-EMA ($3,350), which have flipped into key support levels.

The RSI at 63 shows steady strength without overbought pressure, while the MACD remains positive, confirming upside momentum. Candlestick action with long lower wicks reflects persistent demand on dips. Immediate resistance sits at $3,402 and $3,420, with a breakout paving the way toward $3,433.

On the downside, a break below $3,350 could invite a retreat toward $3,330. A daily close above $3,380 strengthens the bullish case toward the $3,400–$3,433 zone.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is consolidating around $38.71 after breaking slightly above a long-term descending trendline, signaling a potential shift in momentum. The 50-EMA ($38.22) and 100-EMA ($38.07) are providing immediate support, keeping the short-term structure constructive.

The RSI at 58 shows steady strength, while the MACD remains positive, though momentum is flattening. Resistance is seen at $39.10 and $39.52, with a breakout opening the way toward the key $39.97 level.

On the downside, a slip back under $38.18 could pressure prices toward $37.55. A daily close above $39.10 would strengthen the bullish outlook, while failure here risks more range-bound movement.