Among professional traders, one strategy has dominated the year – the TACO Trade.
It’s TACO time again. As Donald Trump storms back onto the global stage with a new barrage of tariff threats, savvy traders are once again leaning into one of the most profitable strategies of his presidency: the TACO Trade – short for Trump Always Chickens Out.
Trump’s latest declaration of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports has set off a chain reaction across global markets – reshaping supply chains, widening price spreads and igniting a safe-haven Gold rush unlike anything seen before. For traders, the question is no longer if Gold belongs in their portfolio – but how much.
On Sunday, President Trump sought to ease nerves after announcing a sweeping new 100% tariff on Chinese goods just 48 hours earlier.
“Don’t worry about China – it will all be fine,” he posted on Truth Social. “Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!”
Vice President JD Vance echoed the sentiment on Fox News, insisting that Trump “holds far more cards than Beijing” and is open to compromise if China reciprocates.
The tone marked a striking shift from Trump’s fiery Friday outburst, when he accused Beijing of “weaponizing” export controls on rare earths and critical minerals – rhetoric that initially rattled markets before his weekend retreat calmed sentiment.
According to Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club (GSC) – “Gold has been on a near-vertical climb since 2022 – up over 54% in the past ten months and a staggering 143% over the last three years. But the real drivers are deeply structural.”
U.S deficit spending continues to spiral, with national debt now surpassing $37 trillion, up $780 billion since July’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Inflation, though off its highs, still erodes real returns across asset classes. Meanwhile, early weakness in the labor market is flashing recession warnings.
Historically, these are the perfect conditions for a sustained Gold Supercycle. And Wall Street’s biggest banks are taking notice. With Trump’s renewed clashes with the Federal Reserve over rate cuts, policy uncertainty has become the new bullish catalyst for Gold, driving institutional flows to record levels.
Among professional traders, one strategy has dominated the year – the TACO Trade.
The cycle is as profitable as it is predictable. Trump announces massive tariffs, markets panic, equities sink, the dollar weakens and Gold surges on safe-haven demand. Then, within days, the White House pivots – softening the rhetoric, delaying implementation, or hinting at negotiations. Markets rebound, traders lock in windfall profits and the cycle resets.
As Hansen explains, “Buy the tariff panic. Ride the rally. Sell into the reversal. Then reload for the next Trump tweetstorm. It’s volatility on demand – and Gold thrives on it.”
Gold has just surged above $4,100 an ounce for the first time in history – doubling in barely two years and outpacing Equities, Bonds, and Real Estate by extraordinary margins. With year-to-date gains of 54%, the yellow metal has cemented its role as the ultimate hedge in a world on edge.
In response, The Gold & Silver Club has raised its official price target to $5,000 an ounce, calling it a “conservative base case” for this cycle.
“The $5,000 milestone isn’t a question of if, but when,” says Hansen.
Wall Street consensus is converging fast: Q4 2025 will go down as the quarter Gold broke into uncharted territory. For traders, the setup is asymmetric, generational and unfolding in real time.
As Hansen concludes, “Gold at $5,000 is no longer a bold prediction – it’s a high-conviction call.” The only question is whether you will seize this opportunity before the breakout leaves you behind?
Phil Carr is co-founder and the Head of Trading at The Gold & Silver Club, an international Commodities Trading, Research and Data-Intelligence firm.