XRP News Today: Soft ETF Demand Sparks Fresh Bearish Risks

XRP–spot ETFs saw modest inflows in the reporting week ending November 28, hitting hopes for strong institutional demand. Weaker-than-expected inflows clashed with the Market Structure Bill’s slow progress on Capitol Hill, keeping the bulls at bay. Crucially, technical indicators continue to send bearish signals, with a November death cross sending XRP to a low of $1.8239.

The bearish technical indicators and modest demand for XRP-spot ETFs expose the token to further downside. Profit-taking after key events continues to stall a November recovery, reinforcing the bearish short-term (1-4 week) outlook.

In my opinion, these dynamics raise the risk of a near-term (3-4 weeks) drop toward $1.82.

Below, we explore the key drivers behind November’s decline, the medium-term (4-8 week) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

Bearish Short-Term Outlook, But Bullish Medium-Term Potential Intact

The near-term outlook remains bearish. However, the medium- to longer-term outlook looks more favorable for the bulls. Several scenarios, including spot ETF flows, crypto-related legislative developments, the OCC’s decision on Ripple’s US-chartered banking license application, and the Fed’s policy stance, will be pivotal.

XRP Rebound at Risk

The previous momentum from the anticipated launch of XRP-spot ETFs has faded, increasing the risk of further losses late in the fourth quarter. Several key drivers sent XRP to a July all-time high of $3.66 (on Binance). These included:

• Expectations of strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs.
• The House passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate.
• Speculation about blue-chip companies purchasing XRP for treasury reserve purposes.

However, third-quarter headwinds triggered a price reversal, with XRP remaining exposed to several key headwinds late in Q4. These headwinds include:

• The MSCI consultation on the listing of digital asset treasury companies (DATs) dampened interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Lackluster institutional demand for XRP-spot ETFs.
• Delays to the Senate vote on the Market Structure Bill.

ETF Inflows Fail to Impress

XRP has plunged 12.33% in November, extending its 11.84% loss from October. Crucially, XRP-spot ETF inflows fell short of market expectations, leaving the token on a bearish trajectory.

XRP-spot ETFs reported net inflows of $22.68 million on Friday, November 28, taking total inflows since launch to $666.61 million.

Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) continued to dominate in the absence of a BlackRock (BLK) iShares XRP Trust, with total inflows of $343.67 million (since launch). However, removing day-one inflows of $243.05 million, XRPC has seen inflows of just $100.62 million in nine days of trading.

With XRPC’s first-to-market advantage fading, inflows into the Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) and Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP) become more crucial.

However, Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) and Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP) have reported inflows of $85.22 million and $166.04 million since launching on November 24. These numbers reinforced market disappointment over the absence of a BlackRock iShares XRP Trust.

November’s flow trends raised doubts about whether the XRP-spot ETF market could deliver numbers comparable to the BTC-spot ETF market, bearish for XRP.

Market Structure Bill Hit by US Government Shutdown

Disappointing XRP-spot ETF numbers coincided with delays to a Senate vote on the Market Structure Bill. The House passed the bill to the Senate on July 17, triggering a 14.69% XRP rally.

However, between-the-aisle wrangling and the US government shutdown have slowed the bill’s progress, contributing to XRP’s reversal.

The weak institutional demand and legislative developments have reinforced the bearish short-term outlook.

Downside Risks: Capitol Hill, MSCI, and Spot ETFs in Focus

The downside risks from weak XRP-spot ETF inflows, legislative delays, and the potential delisting of digital asset treasury companies support the bearish short-term outlook.

In my opinion, XRP is likely to drop below $2.0 and the November low of $1.8239 if spot ETF demand remains weak and US lawmakers slow the progress of the Market Structure bill.

Given the risk of another sell-off, traders should protect long positions with a stop-loss at the November low of $1.8239.

Other potential headwinds include the OCC rejecting Ripple’s application for a US-chartered banking license.

Outlook Brighter for the Bulls

Key upside risks include:

• BlackRock launches an iShares XRP Trust, triggering strong inflows.
• The Fed cuts rates in December, boosting demand for risk assets.
• MSCI retains DATs.
• The Senate passes the Market Structure bill.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP for treasury reserve purposes.

These scenarios are likely to send the token to new highs. A breakout above the July $3.66 ATH could drive the token toward $5.

In summary, the short-term outlook remains bearish while the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP rose 0.91% on Saturday, November 29, reversing the previous day’s 0.84% loss, closing at $2.2015. The token outperformed the broader market, which dropped 0.34%.

Despite Saturday’s gain, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.2, $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.3507.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.5119.
• Resistance levels: $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Signals, Policy Decisions

Near-term price events include:

• XRP-spot ETF daily inflows.
• Blue-chip companies’ views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
• MSCI stance on DATs.
• The Fed rate path

Bearish Scenario: What Happens if $2.0 Breaks?

• XRP-spot ETFs see net outflows.
• The US Senate blocks crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• MSCI announces the delisting of DATs.
• Blue-chip companies downplay interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• US economic data and the Fed pour cold water on a December Fed rate cut.

These bearish events could push XRP below $2.2, exposing the $2.0 psychological support level. A break below $2.0 would enable the bears to target the $1.9112 support level. If breached, the lower trendline and the November 21 low of $1.8239 would be the next key support levels.

Outlook: $2.0 Support Key for Bullish Medium-Term Path

XRP will take center stage in the coming week. The Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill, US jobs and inflation data, and spot ETF inflows will influence sentiment.

Strong US data and hawkish Fed rhetoric would add to the bearish momentum, potentially sending XRP toward $2.0.