Nasdaq Composite: Weekly Forecast Brightens as Traders Bet on a Fed December Cut

Stocks Rip Higher as Thanksgiving Week Delivers a Much-Needed Reset

Thanksgiving week finally gave traders something to smile about. After most of November felt heavy, buyers stepped back in and kept pushing the market higher through every session of the shortened week.

The S&P 500 gained 3.73% to finish at 6,849.09, the Nasdaq rallied nearly 5%, and the Dow added just over 3%. That steady bid helped the S&P and Dow close November slightly positive, even as the Nasdaq stayed red for the month.

Five straight up days helped pull the S&P off levels that had traders wondering whether the month’s slide was turning into something bigger.

Did This Week’s Rebound Shift the Mood?

A little. The strong weekly run masked what had been a tough stretch, especially for the Nasdaq, which came into Thanksgiving on a three-week skid. Earlier in the month, big AI names were under real pressure as traders rethought lofty valuations.

Still, stepping back to the weekly view, the market held up better than the day-to-day noise suggested. The S&P is up around 15% for the year — impressive considering the near bear-market scare in April. Patience has paid off.

Was the Fed the Real Driver Behind the Week’s Rally?

Almost certainly. Weekly sentiment flipped the moment rate-cut odds surged. Traders now price an 85% chance of a quarter-point cut at the December meeting — nearly double last week’s levels.

Comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who noted policy may be tighter than needed and pointed to cooler labor trends, gave the market permission to lean harder into easing expectations. If the Fed follows through, that would be the third cut of 2025.

Did the Shutdown Still Hang Over This Week’s Trading?

It did. The 43-day government shutdown, the longest on record, remained part of the weekly backdrop. The missing October CPI print left traders and policymakers without a key piece of the inflation puzzle.

The CBO’s estimate of roughly $11 billion in permanent GDP loss added to the uncertainty. Even if markets weren’t trading headline-to-headline on the shutdown this week, the missing data still shaped the tone.

Which Sectors and Stocks Drove the Week’s Strength?

Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary led the weekly move. Meta and Alphabet logged solid gains. Apple hit three fresh all-time highs on encouraging iPhone 17 demand reads. Broadcom was the week’s standout, up over 18% as traders warmed to its expanding role in Google’s AI hardware stack. Nvidia slipped slightly as chatter about alternative chip suppliers kept a lid on buyers.

What’s the Weekly Outlook Heading into December?

Traders enter the new week leaning constructive, helped by lower yields and record-high profit margins. But with the Fed now in blackout mode, the market will trade cleanly off incoming data — ISM, ADP, and especially PCE.

Bottom line: the weekly trend has turned positive again, but the next leg depends on whether this week’s numbers reinforce the rate-cut story traders embraced over Thanksgiving.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.