Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Rally Hits Records as Fed Bets Surge — Silver Outlook Strengthens

Silver Rips to Record Highs as Traders Bet Hard on Fed Easing

Spot silver (XAGUSD) exploded to $56.39 on Friday, up 5.63%, after tagging a fresh all-time high at $56.54. Traders were already leaning bullish, but the weak U.S. data dumped gasoline on it. The dollar softened, yields slipped, and buyers came in fast. Even the CME outage couldn’t cool things off — once futures reopened, silver picked up right where it left off.

Soft Data Breaks the Dam

The latest manufacturing read showed a sharper contraction and the labor side cooled again, pulling recession worries back into the picture. The WSJ said the numbers basically killed what was left of the “higher for longer” idea, and the rate market reacted instantly. December cut odds jumped to 89%, up from 50% a week ago. A massive repricing in a short window.

With Waller and Williams leaning dovish lately, the market didn’t need much convincing. Silver became the obvious trade for anyone looking to front-run a softer Fed.

Traders Chase the Breakout

CNBC’s read was spot on: silver looked like a coiled spring finally let loose. Volume was some of the heaviest this year, signaling broad participation — not a retail-only chase.

Once resistance gave way, the chart-driven money jumped too. Kitco’s Jim Wyckoff noted that the setup had turned bullish over the past week, and the follow-through confirmed it. When you mix softer data, technical release, and a market already tight on supply, moves like this tend to run.

Supply Crunch Gets Real

Reuters highlighted what might matter most: the physical market is extremely tight. Chinese inventories are at decade lows. India’s demand hasn’t eased. Some users have resorted to flying silver in because shipping can’t meet delivery timelines.

Industrial buyers — especially solar and EV manufacturers — keep pulling metal from a shrinking pool. When supply is this thin, rallies don’t fade easily because real users can’t step aside.

What Traders Are Watching Next

XAGUSD is now up roughly 84% year-to-date, blowing past gold’s performance and putting in one of its strongest yearly runs in decades. Friday’s push didn’t feel like blow-off behavior — buyers stepped in on dips even after the CME interruption.

Near-term, pullbacks likely stay shallow as long as the December rate-cut story holds and the supply deficit doesn’t ease. A soft print or a hint of dovish confirmation from the Fed could give this another leg.

Bottom line: this isn’t just momentum — the market is repricing silver for a world where supply is tight, demand is sticky, and the Fed is boxed in. Buyers still have control.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.