XRP News Today: Spot ETF Buzz Builds as CFTC Options Launch Fuels Bullish Momentum

CME Launches XRP Options Amid Rising Institutional Interest

The CME Group launched CFTC-regulated contracts on XRP and SOL futures, joining BTC and ETH in the crypto options offering to Main Street. XRP and SOL outperformed the broader crypto market on Monday, October 13, as traders reacted to the launches.

The launch of CFTC-regulated options on XRP futures legitimizes the token ahead of potential XRP-spot ETF approvals. Crucially, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has given its seal of approval, deeming XRP sufficiently legitimate for institutional trading.

Why the XRP Options Launch Matters

This development could have far-reaching implications for spot ETF approvals and institutional adoption.

The CFTC requires robust surveillance and underlying market capabilities, which are also prerequisites for spot ETFs. Furthermore, strong institutional demand for XRP futures and open interest, addresses the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) concern about whether there is sufficient market demand and whether XRP would serve a legitimate purpose.

There are several reasons why the CFTC-regulated contracts on XRP launch could fuel speculation about the SEC greenlighting the S-1s for XRP-spot ETFs. These include:

• CFTC, a major US regulator, deems XRP safe for institutional derivatives trading.
• Genuine institutional demand.
• Market evolution beyond spot trading.

Historically, the SEC and the CFTC have not followed the same playbook. The SEC’s main concern was whether XRP qualified as a non-security under the Howey Test.

However, the SEC vs. Ripple case addressed this issue, with Judge Analisa Torres ruling that programmatic sales of XRP did not constitute securities transactions. Crucially, the SEC dropped its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling, paving the way for an XRP-spot ETF market.

For traders questioning the likelihood of an XRP-spot ETF launch, the resolution of the Ripple case and the launch of CFTC-regulated contracts on XRP futures should provide strong assurance.

Commentary from Market Participants

Marty Party, a prominent crypto commentator with 240,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter), said:

“This marks a major expansion of regulated crypto derivatives beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), providing institutions with sophisticated hedging tools amid surging demand for altcoin exposure.”

While conditions appear favorable for an XRP-spot ETF market, the US Government shutdown continues to indirectly delay institutional inflows by slowing SEC processing.

US Senate Takes Center Stage as Shutdown Enters Day 14

On Tuesday, October 14, all eyes will turn to Capitol Hill. The US Senate could hold a vote on a stopgap funding bill as early as today, potentially reopening the US government.

A return to a full SEC office could enable the agency to review and approve the recently amended S-1s, clearing the way for spot ETF issuers to begin trading.

However, reports from Capitol Hill suggest a continued impasse, raising the risk that the shutdown extends into November. Republican Speaker Mike Johnson reportedly stated:

“We’re barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history.”

Johnson has stated that he would not negotiate with the Democrats until they withdraw their health care demands.

Betting platform Kalshi predicts the US government shutdown will last 33 days, down from 37 days, but close to the 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019, the longest in US history. Furthermore, Kalshi puts the odds of the shutdown extending into November at 57%.

The delay of XRP-spot ETF launches beyond their final decision deadlines, ranging from October 18 to November 14, could weigh on XRP prices. However, speculation about an imminent launch could intensify if the Senate passes a stopgap funding bill, potentially sending XRP to $3.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Will XRP Hold $2.5?

XRP climbed 2.99% on Monday, October 13, following the previous day’s 6.1% rally, closing at $2.6073. The token outperformed the broader market, which gained 0.97%. Despite a three-day winning streak, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.5, $2.0, and $1.9.
• Technical resistance levels: the 200-day EMA at $2.6351 and the 50-day EMA at $2.8508.
• Resistance levels: $2.7 and $3.0.

Catalysts & Scenarios

In the coming sessions, several key events could dictate near-term price trends:

• US-China trade developments.
• The US government shutdown.
• XRP ETF news (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies increase interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.5

• BlackRock pours cold water on hopes for an XRP-spot ETF.
• US Senate gridlock continues, delaying XRP-spot ETF approvals.
• Lawmakers block crypto-friendly regulations, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies show no interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance market, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish scenarios could drag XRP back toward $2.5. A break below $2.5 would expose $2.0.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3

• US and China trade tensions ease.
• Senate passage of a stopgap funding bill.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC green-lights XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• Ripple makes inroads into the global remittance business at SWIFT’s expense.

These bullish scenarios could drive XRP to $2.7 and bring the key psychological resistance at $3 level.

The Big Question: Will the Senate Pass a Stopgap Funding Bill?

Recent updates from Capitol Hill suggested the ongoing impasse could continue into next week. However, the shutdown could come to an abrupt end, as a prolonged deadlock may slow the US economy.

Developments on Capitol Hill will be crucial for near-term price trends. While XRP-spot ETFs remain the focal point, the shutdown would also slow the Market Structure Bill’s progress. The Market Structure Bill is a key crypto legislation, providing clear rules of the road. For context, XRP soared 14.69% on July 17 in response to the US House of Representatives passing the bill to the Senate.

All eyes now turn to Capitol Hill, where a Senate vote could be pivotal in determining whether XRP reclaims $3 or slides back toward $2.

Traders should closely monitor developments on Capitol Hill, US-China trade developments, and Fed commentary, given market sensitivity to last week’s events.