Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: NFP Risk Looms as Metals Pause Near Highs

Market Overview

Gold and silver prices steadied during early European trading on Tuesday as markets paused after a strong multi-week rally in precious metals. The slowdown reflects profit-taking rather than a breakdown in demand, with futures positioning and ETF flows pointing to consolidation instead of broad liquidation.

Safe-haven demand has eased modestly as geopolitical risk premiums softened, encouraging limited rotation into risk assets. Still, downside pressure remains contained. Investors continue to view precious metals as a hedge against slowing US growth and an increasingly accommodative monetary outlook, keeping selling interest selective.

Silver has moved in step with gold, with industrial demand acting as a stabilizing force. According to the World Silver Survey, roughly 55% of global silver consumption is tied to industrial use, linking sentiment to manufacturing activity and energy-transition investment, even as speculative enthusiasm cools.

US Data and NFP in Focus

Attention now shifts to a heavy US data calendar, led by Nonfarm Payrolls, forecast at 51K, sharply lower than the previous 119K. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%, while average hourly earnings are seen at 0.3% m/m, up slightly from 0.2%.

A softer labor print would reinforce expectations that US labor momentum is fading, likely pressuring the dollar and supporting gold and silver via lower real yields. Retail sales are forecast at 0.1% m/m, down from 0.2%, while flash PMIs are expected to edge lower, pointing to moderating economic activity.

Structural Support Remains Intact

Beyond near-term data risk, structural drivers remain supportive. The World Gold Council reports that central bank gold buying remains well above the five-year average, while silver markets continue to face persistent supply deficits due to limited mine growth and rising demand from solar and electronics.

Overall, precious metals appear to be digesting gains ahead of key US data, not signaling a trend reversal, with macro and policy dynamics still favoring medium-term support.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may consolidate between $4,260–$4,320, while silver trades sideways near $63.0–$64.5, with pullbacks viewed as corrective unless key supports break.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,284 on the 4-hour chart after pulling back from recent highs, but the broader structure remains constructive. The latest candlesticks show smaller bodies with upper wicks, suggesting profit-taking rather than aggressive selling. Price is still holding above the rising trendline drawn from late November, which continues to define the medium-term uptrend.

Gold remains supported above the 50-EMA near $4,260, while the 100-EMA around $4,110 reinforces deeper trend support. A former breakout zone near $4,260–$4,240 now acts as a key support area.

Holding this zone keeps the bullish bias intact. On the upside, resistance is seen near $4,320, followed by $4,345, where prior highs cluster. RSI has eased toward the mid-50s, reflecting cooling momentum without a bearish shift.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $63.00 on the 4-hour chart after pulling back from recent highs, but the broader technical structure remains constructive. Recent candlesticks show smaller bodies with overlapping ranges, suggesting consolidation rather than a sharp reversal. Price is holding within a well-defined ascending channel that has guided the uptrend since late November.

Silver remains above the 50-EMA near $61.50, which continues to act as dynamic support, while the 100-EMA around $56.80 underpins the broader bullish structure. The dashed median trendline of the channel highlights steady upside momentum, even as price pauses.

Immediate support sits near $62.00, followed by $61.47, where prior breakout demand emerged. Holding this zone keeps the trend intact. On the upside, resistance is seen near $64.55, followed by $66.20, aligning with previous swing highs and the upper channel boundary.