Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Set to Drive Volatility

Market Overview

Gold remained under pressure in early Asian trading as the US dollar advanced to a one-and-a-half-week high. The greenback’s strength followed the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, which revealed that most officials preferred to hold rates steady while highlighting persistent inflation risks.

This dampened expectations for aggressive policy easing, curbing demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

“The Fed appears intent on keeping its tightening bias intact, and that limits gold’s ability to build momentum,” said a Singapore-based commodities strategist. Futures markets are now pricing in a roughly 75% probability of a quarter-point rate cut next month, down from full pricing just a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Silver Supported by Geopolitical Uncertainty

In contrast, silver managed modest gains, supported by safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Market sentiment was bolstered by reports of continued challenges in reaching a lasting peace agreement in Eastern Europe.

At the same time, political friction in the United States—including heightened scrutiny of Federal Reserve governance—added to market caution, encouraging investors to diversify into alternative assets such as silver.

Analysts noted that silver’s performance underscores its dual role as both a safe-haven and an industrial metal, with resilient demand helping it withstand the drag from a stronger dollar.

Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech in Focus

Market attention is firmly on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Traders expect Powell to outline how the Fed plans to balance persistent inflation risks against signs of cooling labor market conditions.

Alongside Powell’s remarks, upcoming US data—including flash PMIs, weekly jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index—will be closely scrutinized for signals on economic momentum.

Until clearer guidance emerges, both gold and silver are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in central bank communication and broader geopolitical risks, keeping volatility elevated in the near term.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates near $3,330, holding above $3,312 support, while Silver (XAG/USD) steadies at $38.04. Breakouts hinge on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and upcoming U.S. economic data.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,330, holding just above trendline support around $3,312. The chart shows a tightening symmetrical triangle, with lower highs capping rallies and higher lows providing a floor—often a precursor to a sharp breakout. The 50-EMA at $3,341 and 100-EMA at $3,346 are flattening, reflecting indecision.

Momentum signals are mixed. The RSI at 43.7 is slipping, suggesting weakening momentum but not yet oversold. Candlesticks reveal long wicks near support, hinting at dip-buying interest, though sellers remain active near $3,357–$3,375 resistance.

A decisive close above $3,346 could drive a move toward $3,357 and $3,375, while a breakdown below $3,312 risks exposing $3,290–$3,273. Traders may watch for an engulfing candle or EMA crossover as confirmation of direction.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $38.04, consolidating below descending trendline resistance near $38.21. The metal is trapped in a narrowing triangle, with the 50-EMA ($37.92) and 100-EMA ($37.90) acting as dynamic support, signaling indecision. Recent candles show rejection near resistance with long upper wicks, reflecting sellers defending higher levels.

The RSI at 54 points to modest bullish momentum, though not yet strong enough to confirm a breakout. A close above $38.21 could trigger upside toward $38.71 and $39.15, with further extension to $39.52 if momentum builds. On the downside, failure to hold above $37.54 risks a pullback toward $37.08–$36.67.