Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Precious Metals Steady After Fed’s 25bps Cut

Market Overview

Gold and silver steadied on Thursday, drawing support from a weaker U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. The move marks the second reduction this year, signaling policymakers’ growing caution over slowing economic momentum.

The dollar index slipped 0.2% after touching a two-week high earlier this week, improving sentiment for precious metals by making them more affordable for non-dollar buyers.

Fed Signals Uncertainty on Policy Outlook

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged divisions within the committee regarding the path of future monetary policy. “We’re not on a preset course,” Powell said, noting that upcoming inflation and labor data will guide further decisions.

The cautious stance dampened expectations for additional rate cuts in December, though traders remain alert to potential dovish shifts if economic indicators weaken.

Economic Data Adds to Volatility

Fresh economic data added to market uncertainty. Pending home sales in the U.S. stalled at 0.0% against expectations of 1.6%, while crude oil inventories surged by 6.9 million barrels, suggesting softer energy demand. Investors are also awaiting speeches from FOMC members Bowman and Logan, as well as the latest natural gas storage figures, to gauge economic resilience and demand trends across commodities.

Gold and Silver Hold Firm Amid Global Tensions

Broader geopolitical unease and fluctuating growth expectations have reinforced safe-haven demand for precious metals. Analysts at OANDA noted that “gold’s resilience reflects lingering caution in financial markets despite a softer dollar.” Silver mirrored gold’s steadiness, supported by its dual role as an industrial and investment asset.

Outlook Ahead

Traders expect volatility to persist as markets digest Fed signals and global trade developments. With the Fed emphasizing data dependency and inflation still hovering near the 3% threshold, metals could remain supported in the near term.

Any signs of slower U.S. growth or weaker employment figures may renew appetite for gold and silver as investors seek stability amid policy uncertainty.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is expected to trade between $3,887 and $4,010, with momentum capped below the 200-EMA at $4,046. Silver remains range-bound between $47.00 and $47.90, awaiting clearer directional cues.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,963, consolidating below the key $4,010 resistance area after failing to sustain above its 50-period EMA. The 200-EMA around $4,046 continues to act as a ceiling for bullish attempts, while support is seen near $3,887.

A break below this zone could trigger further downside toward $3,791 and $3,715. RSI hovers around 47, showing balanced momentum with no strong trend bias yet.

To shift sentiment upward, gold needs a clear breakout above $4,010, which could expose $4,145. Until then, the metal remains range-bound, with traders waiting for confirmation before committing to new positions.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading around $47.71, consolidating near the 50-period EMA at $47.83 after facing rejection below $47.90 resistance. The metal recently broke out of a descending channel but remains capped by the 200-EMA near $48.70, limiting upside momentum.

Support lies at $46.00 and $45.57, while a close above $47.90 could open the path toward $49.48. RSI sits near 51, showing neutral sentiment with no clear trend direction yet.

For buyers, holding above $47.50 is key to sustaining short-term recovery, while a drop below $47.00 may invite renewed selling toward the lower range of $45.50–$46.00.

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