Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Profit-Taking, Dollar Gains Slow Metals Advance

Market Overview

Gold eased in Asian trading on Friday, retreating from a two-week peak as profit-taking and a modest rebound in the US dollar weighed on sentiment. The dollar’s recovery from its recent two-week low, combined with a rally in Asian equities, heading for their strongest weekly performance since June, curbed short-term demand for the metal.

A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers, often prompting a pause after price rallies. Still, expectations of US monetary easing remain a key source of support. Futures markets now price in over a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, with traders anticipating at least two reductions before year-end.

The shift in outlook followed a softer US jobs report and data showing initial jobless claims rose to 226,000 last week, the highest since early July. “Labor market softness reinforces the case for the Fed to pivot sooner,” one commodities strategist noted, suggesting any pullback in gold could be shallow if policy easing materializes.

Silver Consolidates as Profit-Taking Emerges

Silver also traded softer, with prices easing from recent highs as investors locked in profits. The metal, often benefiting from both industrial and safe-haven demand, saw headwinds from the firmer dollar and stronger risk sentiment in equity markets.

Still, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of US rate cuts continue to underpin its longer-term outlook.

Analysts note that silver’s dual role in the green energy sector, through its use in solar panels and electronics, may keep investment demand resilient, especially as governments accelerate renewable energy targets.

Central Bank Buying and Policy Uncertainty Offer Long-Term Support

In a notable supportive trend, China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to nine consecutive months in July, reinforcing institutional confidence in bullion. Central bank purchases, alongside rising geopolitical and trade frictions, add a stabilizing layer to gold’s fundamentals.

Recent US tariff hikes on Indian imports and new duties targeting semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have reignited concerns of broader trade disruptions, sustaining interest in safe-haven assets.

With no primary US data scheduled, traders will watch upcoming Federal Reserve commentary for signals on the pace of monetary easing, a key driver for both gold and silver in the months ahead.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) holds near $3,396 above trendline and EMA support at $3,362–$3,354, eyeing $3,413 resistance. Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $38.37, targeting $38.76, with support at $38.28 and $37.61.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,396, holding above trendline support from the August 1 rebound. The 50-EMA ($3,362) and 100-EMA ($3,354) are providing a solid bullish base, while price consolidates just below the $3,413 resistance.

A sustained break above this level could open the path toward $3,436 and $3,458. On the downside, immediate support lies at $3,371, with a deeper pullback eyeing $3,344 if momentum weakens. The ascending trendline suggests ongoing buying interest, but failure to clear $3,413 may trigger profit-taking.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $38.37, holding above trendline support from the August rebound. The 50-EMA ($37.81) and 100-EMA ($37.77) have turned supportive, signaling improving bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is seen at $38.76, a breakout above which could open the door toward $39.16 and $39.52.

On the downside, $38.28 is key intraday support, followed by $37.61 if sellers regain control. The recent strong rally and higher lows pattern suggest buyers remain in control, but rejection at $38.76 could trigger a pullback toward the EMAs.