Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Range-Bound Ahead of Fed Data and Inflation Clues

Market Overview

Gold and silver prices held relatively firm on Monday as traders awaited fresh U.S. economic indicators, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices data, for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Market sentiment turned cautious after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments dampened expectations of continued rate cuts through 2025.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in December now stands at 71%, sharply down from more than 90% a week earlier. The shift followed last week’s 25-basis-point reduction, the second cut this year, which investors had largely priced in.

Powell’s insistence that policy decisions will remain data-dependent has refocused attention on inflation metrics and business activity data due this week.

ISM Data to Test Market Sentiment

The ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast at 49.4 for October versus September’s 49.1, is expected to show a marginal improvement but still signal contraction in factory activity. Meanwhile, ISM Manufacturing Prices are projected to rise to 62.4 from 61.9, suggesting persistent input cost pressures that could complicate the Fed’s inflation outlook.

“The upcoming ISM data could influence near-term Treasury yields and dollar strength,” said an analyst at TD Securities. “If price pressures remain elevated, it reinforces the Fed’s cautious tone and limits gold’s upside potential.”

A firm U.S. dollar and steady bond yields continue to weigh on precious metals, which typically benefit from lower rates and weaker greenback conditions. Gold’s safe-haven appeal has also softened amid signs of easing U.S.–China trade tensions, with both sides reportedly moving closer to a trade framework involving tariff adjustments and commodity purchase commitments.

Outlook for Precious Metals

Silver tracked gold’s muted tone, supported by modest industrial demand optimism but restrained by stronger macro signals. Analysts expect both metals to remain range-bound until a clearer direction emerges from this week’s U.S. data and Powell’s next remarks.

With traders shifting focus toward employment and inflation indicators later this week, volatility in bullion markets may pick up, but for now, investors appear to be treading carefully amid mixed global economic signals.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is expected to trade between $3,960 and $4,045, showing limited momentum ahead of key U.S. data, while silver may hold above $48.50, eyeing resistance near $49.30 in the short term.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $4,017, posting slight gains as price consolidates between $3,960 support and $4,045 resistance. The 4-hour chart shows the metal forming a tightening range supported by an ascending trendline from October lows. The 50 EMA at $4,033 acts as short-term resistance, while the 200 EMA near $3,952 provides solid backing.

RSI at 51 reflects neutral momentum with a mild upward bias. A sustained close above $4,045 could trigger a move toward $4,145 and $4,251, while failure to hold $3,960 may lead to a test of $3,887 and $3,791. For now, gold’s range-bound behavior suggests traders are waiting for a breakout to confirm the next trend direction.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $48.75, showing mild gains as the metal consolidates below resistance at $49.28. On the 4-hour chart, price action remains supported by the 200 EMA at $47.39 and the ascending trendline drawn from September lows, confirming a steady bullish structure.

The 50 EMA near $48.53 serves as dynamic support, while the RSI at 57 signals improving momentum without entering overbought territory. A clear breakout above $49.28 could trigger upside toward $50.92 and $52.59, while a close below $47.16 may expose $45.79 as the next support.