Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Safe-Haven Demand vs Dollar Strength

Market Overview

Gold prices edged lower during Thursday’s Asian session, retreating from a three-week peak near $3,400, as the U.S. dollar regained ground. The greenback’s rebound, coupled with profit-taking after recent gains, placed renewed pressure on the yellow metal. Analysts note that a stronger dollar typically makes gold more expensive for non-dollar investors, limiting demand.

Political developments in Washington added another layer of uncertainty. President Donald Trump’s dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook—the first removal of a sitting central bank official—has raised questions about the Fed’s independence. Cook denied misconduct allegations and signaled she would challenge the decision legally.

The move sparked debate among market participants, with New York Fed President John Williams underscoring that central bank independence remains “critical to financial stability.” Despite the pullback, demand for gold as a safe haven persists, with geopolitical tensions and concerns over monetary policy governance providing a supportive backdrop.

Silver Benefits From Fed Uncertainty

Silver prices advanced modestly, rising 0.39% to $38.75, supported by investor interest in safe-haven assets. The white metal continues to draw strength from expectations of Federal Reserve easing later this year.

However, its upside remains capped by dollar resilience, which has curbed momentum across precious metals.

Market observers highlight that silver’s dual role as both a safe-haven and industrial commodity has also underpinned resilience, particularly amid steady demand from the electronics and renewable energy sectors.

Focus Shifts to U.S. Economic Data

Investors are closely watching U.S. economic releases for direction. The second estimate of second-quarter GDP, due Thursday, is projected to show 3.1% annualized growth. A stronger reading could further boost the dollar, intensifying pressure on gold.

Attention will then turn to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. According to CME FedWatch data, markets currently assign an 87% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the September meeting. Kitco Metals analyst Jim Wyckoff cautioned, however, that a hotter inflation print could temper those expectations.

In the near term, gold faces headwinds from the dollar’s rally, but longer-term momentum hinges on the Fed’s policy path. Traders remain cautious, balancing the prospect of rate cuts with stronger economic data that could delay easing.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold trades at $3,390, supported above $3,373 with resistance at $3,404–$3,420. Silver holds near $38.80, eyeing $39.01–$39.52, while support remains firm at $38.37.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading around $3,390 after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart, suggesting momentum is shifting toward buyers. The breakout above $3,373 keeps short-term sentiment constructive, with the next resistance at $3,404 followed by $3,420.

The 50-EMA at $3,365 and the 100-EMA at $3,358 are aligned below price, offering a supportive base. RSI is holding near 59, showing moderate strength without being stretched.

Meanwhile, the MACD has recently crossed lower, signaling caution and the possibility of consolidation before another attempt higher. If gold stays above $3,373, the outlook favors retesting higher levels, while a close back below this zone could send price toward $3,351 and $3,330.

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Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $38.80, showing strength after bouncing off support at $38.37 and reclaiming both the 50-EMA ($38.35) and 100-EMA ($38.17). The recovery has pushed prices back toward resistance at $39.01, where previous rallies stalled.

RSI is climbing around 59, signaling improving momentum, while MACD remains slightly positive, hinting at a shift toward bullish pressure. The price structure suggests silver is breaking out of consolidation, with the next upside targets at $39.52 and $39.97 if $39.01 is cleared.

On the downside, support sits at $38.37 and $37.81. Holding above the EMAs keeps the bias tilted upward, but rejection at resistance could trigger short-term pullbacks.