Ethereum’s Rally to $6,000+ Took a Detour

All We Can Do Is “Anticipate, Monitor, and Adjust if necessary”

Much has changed in Ethereum’s price (ETHUSD) since our last public update four weeks ago, see here, when we expected a quicker rally to $6000+. Notably, Ether experienced a significant detour over the past four weeks, including a sudden spike on Friday, but the overall outlook remains unchanged, see Figure 1 below.

Specifically, our preferred long-term Elliott Wave Principle (EW) analysis suggests that ETHUSD is in the final upward impulse from its April 2025 low: the black Wave-5. Since impulses move in five waves (red W-i, ii, iii, iv, v) and only four have occurred so far, at least one more wave (red W-v) is needed. The ideal target zone for W-v is $6921 to $9159.

In this case, we count down months since the April black W-4 low as the second and fourth waves of the black W-5: red W-ii and W-iv, respectively. Additionally, at last week’s low, Ether retested the breakout from the bull flag pattern it remained in for most of 2022-24. This is a classic technical pattern. From this perspective, the bull flag target of $6141 remains unmet, given the recent $4955 ATH on August 24.

Last Week’s Flash Crash

So, what happened last week? (Flash) Crashes are most often C-waves. Last Friday was no different, and our adjusted short-term EW count indicates the flash crash most likely finished the green W-c of the red W-iv. In this case, the 4th wave became extended rather than simple, as shown in our last update, developing into a seven-week-long expanded flat. See Figure 2 below.

The 11-day rally, which peaked at the October 7 high of $4758, consisted of seven waves and was therefore a corrective B-wave, as such waves typically move in 3, 7, 11, etc., steps, while impulses move in 5, 9, 11, etc., steps. Additionally, although the red W-iii topped beyond the usual 161.8% Fibonacci extension, Ether bottomed out right at the 100.0% Fib extension at Friday’s low, which is a common 4th wave target.

Therefore, as long as it stays above last Friday’s $3546 low, we can expect Ether to still reach over $6000 and possibly as high as $9000 in the coming weeks and months. To keep our members informed of the latest developments in this rapidly changing crypto market, we provide a daily newsletter—essential for staying current.