Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Safe-Haven Surge Lifts XAU Above $4,600 as XAG Eyes $86 Breakout

Market Overview

Gold price (XAU/USD) started the new week on a strong track and hit an all-time high around above the $4,600 level. However, the reason behind this huge rally can be attributed to the increasing safe-haven demand in the market. Moreover, expectations of a US interest rate cut were seen as another major factor boosting gold prices.

Looking ahead, traders are keeping their eyes on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data due later on Tuesday. Economists expect the headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, while the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast at 0.3% month-over-month.

Hence, Gold can gain traction if US inflation meets expectations because moderate inflation increases chances of Fed rate cuts, lowering opportunity costs for holding gold and boosting its appeal as a safe asset.

Gold Gains as Geopolitical Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand

As we mentioned, safe-haven demand for gold has been increasing as the global political situation has become more tense. According to reports from CNN, US President Donald Trump is considering several possible military actions against Iran after deadly protests erupted in the country.

As per the sources, Trump is considering taking action on his recent warnings and could respond if the Iranian government continues to use force against protesters. These developments have increased concerns in the financial markets and pushed the gold price above $4,600 level.

At the same time, the United Kingdom and Germany are planning to increase their military presence in Greenland because of concerns about Arctic security. This comes soon after US forces arrested former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. These events increased the uncertainty in the market, so investors are turning to safe assets like gold, which has pushed its demand higher.

Gold Rises as US Dollar Weakens Amid Fed Concerns and Soft Jobs Data

On the US front, the US dollar fell after news of a criminal investigation involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The investigation is linked to his testimony about extra costs for renovating the Fed’s headquarters.

This worried investors and made people doubt the Fed’s independence. It is worth recalling that the previously released US jobs report showed slower growth, which raised hopes that the Fed might cut interest rates.

Hence, this news supported Gold prices as lower interest rate expectations make holding non-yielding assets like Gold more attractive. In the meantime, the concerns over the Fed’s independence and weaker US jobs data pushed investors toward safer assets, giving Gold a boost.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold hits a record high above $4,600 as safe-haven demand, Fed rate-cut bets, and rising geopolitical tensions lift XAU/USD, while silver eyes a breakout above $85.66.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $4,575 after a strong breakout above the descending trendline and the key $4,549 resistance, now acting as support. Recent candles show small bodies near the highs, signaling hesitation after an impulsive move.

The uptrend remains intact above the rising channel from early January, with price well above the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, both turning higher. RSI near 74 shows stretched conditions, increasing the probability of a short pause or retest toward $4,549. If buyers reclaim $4,600, upside opens toward $4,653 and $4,680.

Trade Idea: Buy on a close above $4,600, targeting $4,653.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $84.25 after a strong rally into the $85.66 resistance band, where multiple long-wick candles now show hesitation. The uptrend remains intact above the rising trendline from early December, with price holding well above the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, both sloping upward. The breakout above $82.03 has turned that level into first support.

A deeper pullback could retest $79.77, where buyers stepped in recently. RSI near 76 signals stretched momentum, increasing the chance of a brief pause before the next move. A close above $85.66 could open upside toward $88.73.

Trade Idea: Buy only on a confirmed breakout above $85.66.