Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Tariff Fears Trigger Safe-Haven Rally

Market Overview

Gold and silver prices advanced on Thursday as investors returned to traditional safe-haven assets, driven by mounting global trade frictions and increasing odds of a Federal Reserve policy pivot. The resurgence in precious metals reflects both geopolitical and macroeconomic unease, with traders reassessing risk in light of weaker US economic signals and rising tariffs.

The metals rebounded sharply after President Trump authorized a 25% tariff increase on Indian imports, bringing the total levy to 50%, in response to continued energy trade with Russia. Markets also responded to speculation of additional tariffs on Japanese goods, alongside proposed restrictions on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

These developments have renewed fears of a broader trade conflict, prompting a defensive rotation into gold and silver.

Weak US Data Sharpens Focus on Fed Easing

Disappointing macroeconomic data has added fuel to the rally. The ISM Services PMI slipped to a multi-month low this week, while the US Nonfarm Payrolls report came in below expectations for the second consecutive month. These trends have amplified market confidence in an imminent shift in monetary policy.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, futures markets now price in a 90.5% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September. Traders are also factoring in at least two rate reductions before year-end, reflecting a broader belief that the Fed will act preemptively to support growth.

“The data is softening, and the Fed can’t afford to fall behind the curve,” said Charles Meyer, macro strategist at Wellspoint Capital. “Precious metals are reflecting that recalibration in real time.”

Dollar Stability Caps Gains but Outlook Remains Bullish

While the US Dollar staged a modest recovery from weekly lows, its limited rebound has not derailed the bullish case for metals. The inverse relationship between gold and the dollar remains intact, with non-yielding assets like gold and silver benefiting from reduced interest rate expectations.

Investors now turn their attention to upcoming US initial jobless claims and remarks from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for further clarity on the Fed’s trajectory. Until then, macro uncertainty and policy shifts are likely to keep safe-haven demand elevated.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above $3,370 with bullish momentum toward $3,413–$3,438, while silver eyes a breakout above $38.43, targeting $38.92–$39.44 if $37.82 support holds.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold prices remain anchored above $3,370, supported by a firm ascending trendline and consolidation near the 50- and 100-period EMAs. The metal has been oscillating between $3,364 and $3,390, indicating indecision as traders weigh easing dollar strength against lingering geopolitical tensions.

The technical structure remains constructive above the $3,344 support, with upside momentum likely accelerating on a break above $3,390, targeting $3,413 and $3,438. If momentum fades, initial support lies at $3,364, followed by $3,344.

The broader trend still favors buyers while the price stays above the rising trendline and EMAs show a bullish crossover structure.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver continues its upward trajectory, trading near $38.08 after reclaiming the 50- and 100-period EMAs. The metal is climbing within a rising wedge structure, now facing resistance at $38.43.

A breakout above this level could pave the way toward $38.92 and potentially $39.44. However, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution, as a breakdown below $37.82 could signal bearish reversal risk, exposing $37.30 and $36.80 as next supports.

Momentum favors bulls for now, with price above key moving averages and higher lows reinforcing trend strength. But a rejection at resistance may trigger profit-taking.