Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Tariffs, NFP Drive Dollar-Denominated Moves

Market Overview

Gold and silver prices extended their declines in early Friday trading, reflecting renewed strength in the U.S. Dollar following the Trump administration’s sweeping tariff revisions.

Gold hovered near $3,285 while silver dipped 0.35% to trade around $36.59, both facing pressure ahead of a pivotal U.S. jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

The U.S. government’s latest trade measures include a 10% baseline tariff on imports and a hike to 35% on Canadian goods, effective August 1. Tariffs on Mexico were extended by 90 days, signaling more flexibility for bilateral talks.

While geopolitical tensions typically enhance gold’s appeal as a hedge, this round of trade action has instead boosted the dollar. A stronger dollar reduces the purchasing power of international gold buyers, effectively dampening demand.

Fed Policy in Focus as Tariff Moves Stir Inflation Debate

“The market is viewing these tariffs not only as protectionist but potentially inflationary,” said a senior commodities analyst at Citi Research. “That gives the Fed another reason to delay rate cuts, which in turn puts pressure on gold.”

The yield outlook remains pivotal. Since gold is a non-yielding asset, its performance often inversely tracks real interest rates. A “higher for longer” monetary stance could keep precious metals subdued in the near term.

Jobs Report May Set Tone for September Fed Decision

Attention now shifts to the July U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, due Friday. Economists forecast a gain of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2%. Any upside surprise could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s patient approach, as policymakers continue to emphasize a data-dependent strategy.

Chair Jerome Powell recently reiterated the need for more evidence of a sustained disinflation trend before altering policy.

In the broader context, while short-term downside risks dominate, persistent trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to underpin the long-term case for gold and silver. Escalation in global supply chain disruptions or a deterioration in economic indicators could swiftly restore safe-haven flows into precious metals.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains bearish below $3,301, eyeing support at $3,268 and $3,244. Silver struggles under $36.77, with downside risks toward $35.79 and $35.41 unless buyers reclaim $37.26.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold remains under bearish pressure, trading near $3,292 and contained within a downward channel. The 50-EMA at $3,312 and 100-EMA at $3,328 continue to act as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Despite a slight intraday recovery, price action failed to break above the key resistance at $3,301, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum. If XAU/USD fails to reclaim this level, the downside targets lie near $3,268 and $3,244.

A break below this zone could open the path toward $3,225. On the upside, a confirmed breakout above $3,301 and the channel top could shift sentiment toward $3,334.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is attempting to stabilize near $36.60 after a sharp sell-off from the $38.60–$39.00 region. The price has found interim support around $36.28, just above an ascending trendline that has held since mid-June.

However, the 50-EMA at $37.47 and the 100-EMA at $37.85 overhead remain strong dynamic resistance zones.

If bulls reclaim $36.77, a short-term recovery toward $37.26 could follow. Failure to hold above $36.28 may trigger further downside toward $35.79 and potentially $35.41.

Momentum remains weak, and a clear break above the moving averages would be required to re-establish a bullish structure.