Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Technicals Tighten Ahead of NFP Report

Market Overview

Gold prices extended losses during Wednesday’s Asian session, falling to $3,301 per ounce, while silver hovered near $32.86, as renewed optimism over global trade and a firmer U.S. dollar weighed on traditional safe-haven assets.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed for a second consecutive day, holding above the 99.00 mark, limiting bullion’s appeal for foreign buyers.

The move followed policy shifts aimed at easing trade restrictions—most notably the U.S. administration’s decision to delay auto tariff requirements by two years. This decision lifted broader market sentiment, encouraging a rotation into risk assets and away from gold and silver.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Grow After Weak U.S. Data

Despite short-term weakness, gold continues to find support from mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve could soon begin easing policy. The latest JOLTS report showed U.S. job openings fell to 7.19 million in March, the lowest since September 2024.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence slumped to 86.0, its weakest reading in nearly five years, with the Present Situation Index at 133.5 and the Expectations Index dropping sharply to 54.4.

These soft data points have reinforced expectations for rate cuts, with markets now pricing in a 56.8% chance of a reduction in the upcoming policy cycle. Lower rates typically benefit non-yielding assets like gold and silver, which don’t offer interest but serve as a store of value during economic uncertainty.

Geopolitical Tensions Provide Underlying Support

Although trade optimism has curbed safe-haven flows, persistent geopolitical tensions—particularly in Eastern Europe—continue to provide a supportive backdrop.

While not the primary driver this week, these risks have kept downside in precious metals contained.

Key Data Ahead May Determine Gold’s Next Move

Market participants now await a series of high-impact U.S. economic releases, including Wednesday’s ADP employment data, Advance Q1 GDP, and the Core PCE Price Index.

The outcome of these reports, along with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, will likely define short-term direction for both gold and silver as investors assess the Fed’s next move.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain range-bound as traders weigh soft U.S. data against trade optimism; key breakouts hinge on upcoming economic releases and trendline support.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is holding near $3,309 on the 2-hour chart, consolidating just above an ascending trendline that’s been in place since mid-April. Price is hovering between the 50 EMA ($3,319) and a key support level at $3,300, while the 200 EMA offers a deeper cushion at $3,258.

The recent candles show indecision, with small-bodied ranges and long wicks—typical of a market waiting on a catalyst. As long as the trendline and $3,300 hold, the structure remains cautiously bullish.

A decisive close above the $3,320–$3,330 zone could re-energize buyers toward $3,369. But if this support cluster gives way, watch for a deeper pullback toward $3,260 or even $3,205. For now, gold is treading water—balanced between patience and potential.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is holding at $32.86 after briefly dipping into the key support zone around $32.66, where it found buyers along an ascending trendline that’s been respected since mid-April. Price is sandwiched between this rising support and a descending resistance line from recent highs—forming a converging wedge.

The 50 EMA ($33.07) and 200 EMA ($32.70) are providing near-term structure, with the 200 EMA helping stabilize today’s pullback. Candles show long wicks near support, signaling buying interest, though momentum remains mixed.

A break above $33.19 could open a push toward $33.70, but failure to hold $32.66 risks a drop toward $32.13. For now, silver is coiled at a decision point—bulls need volume and follow-through to reclaim control.