Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Trade Tariffs and PMI Data in Focus

Market Overview

Gold and silver dipped in Asian trading as traders weighed rising expectations of a September Fed rate cut against renewed strength in the U.S. Dollar and upbeat equity sentiment.

The latest U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report showed July job gains of 73,000—well below the expected 110,000—alongside downward revisions for prior months. Factory orders also fell 4.8% in June, reversing May’s sharp rebound. Together, the data signal a softer economic backdrop.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s now a 91% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields slipped below 4.10%, reflecting increased appetite for lower-risk assets.

Tariffs Raise Geopolitical Risk Premium

Adding to market uncertainty, President Trump’s recent executive order imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on dozens of countries. The broad scope and focus on trade deficit partners sparked renewed volatility across emerging markets.

Such protectionist shifts tend to drive safe-haven demand. As a JPMorgan strategist put it, metals often act as early hedges in risk-sensitive portfolios when trade tensions rise.

Dollar Strength Limits Upside

Despite macro tailwinds, gold and silver remain constrained by a firmer Dollar. Improved global risk appetite and steady capital flows into U.S. markets have lifted the greenback. Traders now await the ISM Services PMI for further policy signals.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold eyes resistance near $3,382, with support at $3,344 and $3,332. Silver must clear $37.81 to rally toward $38.34, while downside risk remains toward $36.80 and $36.36.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is testing the upper boundary of a descending trendline near $3,382 after a sharp rebound from the $3,281 low. The rally stalled just below resistance, with small-bodied candles hinting at buyer exhaustion.

Price is now consolidating below the 0.236 Fib level ($3,358), which could act as a pivot.

The 50-EMA and 100-EMA around $3,341 are offering dynamic support, but failure to break above the trendline may trigger a pullback toward $3,344 or $3,332. A decisive breakout above $3,382 could open the door to $3,402 and beyond.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is consolidating beneath the descending trendline resistance near $37.40–$37.60, with price compressing inside a rising wedge formation. Both the 50-EMA ($37.59) and 100-EMA ($37.67) remain above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance.

Despite the recent rebound from the $36.36 zone, the structure still shows lower highs and remains technically fragile. A decisive breakout above $37.81 is required to signal bullish continuation toward $38.34 and potentially $38.84.

On the downside, a rejection from trendline resistance or wedge breakdown below $37.28 could expose $36.80 or $36.36 again. RSI appears neutral, suggesting indecision.