Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: US Venezuela Tensions Test $4,500 and $80

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) started this week off on a real high note, pushing right on past the $4,400 level at the start of the European session. But interestingly, that’s about as far as the bounce went. What actually drove that initial uptick was geopolitical tensions abroad, particularly in Latin America, where the vibe is getting very tense indeed. Venezuela, where the US led a military strike that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and some ominous warnings from the US that Colombia and Mexico might be next on the hit list.

All this has really spooked investors and put them in a real scramble to get their hands on safe-haven assets like gold. There’s even more going on: the tensions in Ukraine are still unresolved, Iran is still as unstable as ever, and it’s also still chaos in Gaza.

Through it all, investors are being cautious, which means any old haven will do. That’s where gold is really shining, as people look to hold onto their capital through all this uncertainty.

Strong US Dollar Fails to Cap Gold Rally

On the one hand, the US dollar is feeling strong – its safe-haven status making it a go-to destination in times of uncertainty. But even with that stronger dollar, gold is still looking pretty good.

Now, what’s on the horizon: one thing to watch is the US economic releases due out this week. There are a few announcements about inflation, and on Friday, we get the jobs report. Any weaker than expected, it could jolt the gold market – especially if it means the Fed has to do even more to lower interest rates.

Short-Term Forecast

For the next few days, gold could be trading between $4,410 and $4,450. If it can hold up the safe haven demand, it might just break out above $4,500. Silver meanwhile is looking at $74 as its next support level – and if that holds, then $78 to $80 is a real possibility.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at around $4,421 on the charts. It’s bounced back after a sharp drop from a peak of $4,550. The Fibonacci retracement of $4,412 has been reclaimed – and on the short term EMA, the candles have closed above. That looks good for gold.

The overall trend line from December remains intact, and the next resistance levels are at $4,445 (61.8% Fib) and then $4,498. Most recently, the candles have been making higher lows – that’s a good sign that people are buying up gold again.

The momentum indicator (RSI) is at 50, which suggests momentum is recovering, but it’s not going too mad just yet. The trade idea is to buy near $4,410 with a target of $4,500. Stop below $4,340 if the price drops.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $75.40 on the charts and is just about stabilising after some rather wild movements from a peak of $82. There is still a rising trendline from December, and the price is above the $73.20 – $74.00 support zone, where it used to trade a while back.

The short-term EMA near $73.50 is providing support, and the 200 EMA around $62 is confirming a broader bullish setup. The candles are making higher lows – which is a good sign of renewed buying interest.

The momentum indicator (RSI) has recovered towards 50, which is a sign that momentum is picking up, but it’s not yet getting too stretched. The trade idea is to buy near $74.00 with a target of $80.00. Stop below $72.80 if price drops.