Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Will a Break Above $3,366 and $37.05 Confirm Upside?

Market Overview

Gold prices edged higher in early Asian trading on Friday, rising above $3,340 per ounce, supported by renewed safe-haven demand despite a stronger U.S. Dollar. The move followed Thursday’s release of better-than-expected U.S. labour market data, which showed 147,000 jobs added in June, beating the 111,000 forecast, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics.

However, wage growth moderated to 0.2% from 0.4% in May, tempering inflation fears and leaving room for potential monetary easing later this year.

“The jobs number was strong, but the cooling in wage inflation gives the Fed some flexibility,” said a senior macro strategist at a New York-based investment bank. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, adding to the view that while the labour market is resilient, inflationary pressure may be easing.

Policy Risk and Fiscal Pressure Add to Gold’s Appeal

Growing concerns over fiscal policy and trade tensions also underpin gold’s resilience. Markets are watching closely as the U.S. administration signals new tariff measures ahead of the July 9 trade deadline, creating fresh uncertainty in global supply chains.

Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office recently projected that new tax and spending policies could add $3.4 trillion to the national debt, straining long-term U.S. economic fundamentals.

This combination of policy risk and rising fiscal pressure is fueling demand for hedging assets. “With deficits widening and trade policy in flux, gold continues to play a key role in portfolio risk management,” noted one commodities analyst.

Silver Maintains Gains Near $36.88 in Cautious Trade

Silver also traded slightly higher, last seen at $36.87. The metal has held its ground within a rising price channel, supported by a firm 50-day EMA. Analysts view silver as benefiting from both its industrial use case and its safe-haven characteristics in uncertain macro environments.

As U.S. markets reopened after the Independence Day holiday, trading volumes remained light. Still, both gold and silver are poised to finish the week on a stronger note, with sentiment bolstered by a complex mix of robust data, policy uncertainty, and global economic concerns.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains above $3,340, with a bullish wedge setup in place. Silver eyes $37.05 breakout as safe-haven demand and technical support drive momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,342, caught in a tightening wedge pattern formed by descending resistance and rising support. The price is hovering just above the 50 EMA ($3,333) and 200 EMA ($3,337), both of which now align as a dynamic confluence zone.

This area is critical—holding it keeps bulls in play, while a break below could trigger a move back toward $3,304 or even $3,278.

If buyers can sustain momentum and break above the descending trendline near $3,366, it may signal a bullish continuation targeting $3,393 and $3,422. Until a breakout or breakdown occurs, gold remains range-bound, with volatility likely to follow compression.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $36.87, consolidating near short-term resistance at $37.05 after recovering from a brief dip below $36.35. The metal is holding inside an ascending channel, with price action supported by both the 50 EMA ($36.62) and 200 EMA ($36.34), indicating a healthy short-term trend.

The structure remains bullish as long as silver respects the rising trendline and stays above $36.62. A confirmed breakout above $37.05 could open the door to $37.31 and $37.58, while a break below $36.62 risks a pullback toward $36.12. Until a breakout occurs, silver remains biased to the upside but range-bound within tightening levels.