Gold (XAUUSD) Surge on Fed Rate Cut Hopes and Global Uncertainty, Silver Near Breakout Zone

Gold (XAUUSD) surged to a new record high of $4,000, supported by strong safe-haven demand. The rally reflects rising uncertainty over a U.S. government shutdown and a weakening labour market. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts further lifted bullion, with markets pricing in a 94.6% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October.

Moreover, geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying continue to support gold prices. The People’s Bank of China added to its gold reserves for the eleventh consecutive month, while Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold target to $4,900. In addition, political instability in France and Japan, along with the ongoing Russia‑Ukraine conflict, further reinforces gold’s bullish momentum.

Meanwhile, falling U.S. Treasury yields have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.13%, showing signs of negative price action. A break below 4.00% could trigger a sharper decline in yields. Additionally, while the U.S. dollar is rebounding from long-term support, gold prices remain supported as inflation expectations continue to rise.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Daily Chart – Ascending Broadening Wedge

The daily chart for spot gold indicates that the price has reached a strong long-term resistance level near $4,000. Despite this resistance, the price remains firm, suggesting potential for further upside. The chart below highlights a key target zone between $4,000 and $4,100, defined by the upper boundary of an ascending broadening wedge pattern.

A breakout above $4,100 would likely trigger another surge toward higher price levels. A confirmed clearance of the $4,000 barrier could pave the way for a broader target of around $6,000. Strong support remains at the $3,500 level. Meanwhile, the $4,100 zone is also visible on the daily chart and may act as the next intermediate resistance.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channel

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that the price has formed an ascending channel pattern, with the $4,000 target aligning with the upper resistance of this channel. A breakout above $4,000 could trigger another strong move toward higher levels. However, in the event of a correction, spot gold may find support around the $3,870 region.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAGUSD Daily Chart – Resistance of $49

The daily chart for spot silver shows a strong bullish price structure, forming within the course of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern and other bullish formations. The breakout above $35 triggered a sharp rally, pushing prices toward the resistance level near $48.

After testing this level, silver attempted to form a reversal candle, but no significant correction has followed yet. This suggests that the price may consolidate between $48 and $50 in the short term.

However, silver remains in extreme overbought territory, as indicated by the RSI. This, combined with the strong resistance zone between $48–$50, may lead to a notable correction before the next leg higher. Key short-term support lies between $40 and $45. However, a deeper pullback could take silver back toward the $35 level.

XAGUSD 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for spot silver (XAG) shows that the price has reached strong resistance at the top of an ascending broadening wedge. A breakout above $48 could trigger another bullish surge toward the $50 area in the short term. However, the strong resistance remains within the $48 to $50 level.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Rebound from Long-Term Support

The daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index indicates that the index has failed to break below the key support level at 96.50. The index formed a bullish hammer pattern following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut.

The index is now rebounding toward the 100.50 level after clearing resistance at 98.60. As long as it remains below 100.50, the next directional move is likely to be lower. However, a decisive breakout above 100.50, followed by a move above the 200-day SMA near 101, would signal further upside potential for the USD Index.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Inverted Head and Shoulder

The 4-hour chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the index is attempting a breakout above 98.60, with potential to move toward the 99.20 and 100.50 levels. The formation of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern following the rebound from 96.50 suggests a phase of bullish consolidation.

However, as long as the index remains below 100.50, the broader trend remains bearish, and this rebound may present a selling opportunity. A confirmed breakout above 100.50 would neutralise the current downtrend and could trigger further upside momentum.