Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, could rally more than 50% toward $125 as its buyback program continues to generate demand despite a slowdown in exchange trading activity.
HYPE Buybacks Continue Despite 15.7% Volume Decline
Hyperliquid bought about $63 million worth of HYPE over the past 30 days, bringing cumulative buybacks to $1.39 billion, according to Strata’s on-chain data.
The decentralized exchange’s Assistance Fund uses revenue to buy HYPE directly from the spot market. The acquired tokens remain in the fund rather than being permanently burned.
Over the past 30 days, these purchases averaged approximately $2.1 million daily, creating a recurring source of token demand linked to the platform’s trading activity.
Hyperliquid’s perpetual futures trading volume fell 15.7% week over week to approximately $48.97 billion, according to DefiLlama.
The exchange nevertheless generated approximately $18.38 million in trading fees and $14.18 million in protocol revenue during the seven days.
The decline in derivatives volume highlights the program’s dependence on sustained exchange activity. Lower transaction volumes can reduce fee generation and, consequently, the amount available for future purchases.
Kraken’s US Futures Plan Expands Hyperliquid’s Institutional Reach
The trading slowdown coincides with Hyperliquid’s efforts to expand into traditional financial markets.
On October 26, Hyperliquid announced its support for Kraken parent Payward to become its first US-regulated derivatives market deployer under the HIP-3 framework.
Payward, the parent company of Kraken, announced its intention to be the first CFTC-regulated deployer on HIP-3* markets. Payward will use Hyperliquid as the infrastructure layer to deploy perpetual futures markets for US clients. Subject to regulatory approval, Bitnomial, Payward’s CFTC-regulated DCM and DCO, would act as the HIP-3* deployer: creating, owning, and administering the markets and clearing and settling the contracts. If approved, NinjaTrader Clearing, Payward’s CFTC-registered FCM, would carry client accounts.
HIP-3 will support optional deployer configuration for permissioned markets in a future network upgrade. This set of additional deployer functionality is collectively called HIP-3*. At its core, HIP-3* activation involves an onchain allowlist managed by the deployer or its sub-deployers. The functionality is strictly additive to HIP-3; its use is optional and up to the deployer. Existing markets remain unchanged. The initial release is available on testnet, where specifications are preliminary and subject to change based on feedback.
Hyperliquid is a neutral infrastructure layer with the goal of supporting large parts of the financial system. HIP-3* gives deployers additional functionality to operate deployments consistent with the requirements applicable to them. As with HIP-3, HIP-3* deployers are independent operators who use Hyperliquid as the onchain infrastructure layer for their own markets, while retaining control and responsibility over their deployment.
— Hyperliquid (@HyperliquidX) October 26, 2026
The proposed arrangement would involve Bitnomial, a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization, operating markets using Hyperliquid’s infrastructure.
HIP-3 allows independent operators to launch perpetual futures contracts, which enable traders to speculate on asset prices without fixed expiration dates.
Deploying these markets requires staking HYPE tokens, creating an additional use for the cryptocurrency beyond trading.
However, Payward’s planned deployment remains subject to regulatory approval.
Separately, EQX Labs opened 11 tokenized US stock and ETF markets on Hyperliquid on October 26, offering exposure to companies including Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft.
These products trade around the clock but represent share-backed debt instruments rather than direct ownership of the underlying stocks. They are unavailable to US persons.
The developments extend Hyperliquid’s presence beyond cryptocurrency derivatives, although their longer-term contribution to trading volumes and revenue remains unproven.
Federal Reserve Decision Puts HYPE’s Recovery in Focus
The Federal Reserve’s October 28 interest rate decision provides another near-term market catalyst.
Bond traders largely expect the central bank to maintain its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4%, according to CME data, with attention turning to potential changes in its December policy outlook.
As of Wednesday, October 28, the US 10-year Treasury yield was near 5%, while the dollar index held near a two-week high.
Elevated bond yields can weigh on demand for risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies, by making government securities relatively more attractive.
A hawkish Fed statement could therefore complicate HYPE’s recovery, even as Hyperliquid continues expanding its exchange business.
HYPE Price Chart Shows 50% Upside Potential
HYPE’s three-day chart shows the token consolidating near its 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $81.33, following a pullback from its September record high near $98.
The token also remains above the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level near $75.18, which has emerged as an important support area.
Its relative strength index (RSI) stands near 52, indicating broadly neutral momentum following the recent correction.
Holding above the 20-period EMA would keep the broader bullish structure intact, with an initial upside target near the previous record high of $98.
A decisive breakout above that level could open the door toward the 4.236 Fibonacci extension at $115.22, followed by the 4.618 extension at $124.68.
The latter represents approximately 53% upside from the current price.
Conversely, a sustained decline below $75.18 would weaken the bullish outlook and expose the 50-period EMA near $72.83 as the next support level.