Advertisement
Advertisement
Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 10, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More
By:
Analysis and Recommendations: Copper continued to decline against a stronger US dollar as global demand wanes for the industrial metal. Copper is trading
Analysis and Recommendations:
Copper continued to decline against a stronger US dollar as global demand wanes for the industrial metal. Copper is trading at 2.337. Palladium edged up 90 points to 600.70. The copper price is having a torrid 2015 as the economic news out of number one consumer China continues to rattle investors.
Copper failed to bounce from six-year lows struck yesterday, exchanging hands for $2.3475 a pound ($5,175 a tonne) after dipping to $2.33 earlier. Copper’s latest drop follows a reading of Chinese manufacturing activity that shocked the market. The copper price is down 17% so far this year.
The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for July fell by more than expected to a two year low of 47.8.
A reading below 50 indicates a contraction and the Caixin index has shown shrinking output, orders and prices for five straight months. The official government-compiled manufacturing PMI, published on Saturday, was much healthier than Caixin, but also edged down from 50.2 to 50.0.
As gold, oil, copper and other commodities tumble to multiyear lows, one expert says the turmoil is far from over. In fact, he said the collapse could mean that a full-blown market correction is just around the corner. Copper has fallen almost 17 percent this year to new six-year lows.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
AUD |
Home Loans (MoM) (Jun) |
4.4% |
5.0% |
-7.3% |
|||
|
AUD |
RBA Monetary Policy Statement |
|
|
|
|
||
|
CHF |
Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jul) |
3.1% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
|
||
|
CHF |
Unemployment Rate (Jul) |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
|
||
|
EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.4% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
||
|
EUR |
German Trade Balance (Jun) |
24.0B |
21.5B |
19.5B |
|||
|
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
||
|
GBP |
Trade Balance (Jun) |
|
-9.30B |
-8.00B |
|
||
|
GBP |
Trade Balance Non-EU (Jun) |
|
-2.40B |
-1.57B |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Monday, August 10, 2015
|
|
Event |
|
|
Previous |
|
||||||
|
JPY |
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Jul) |
51 |
|||||||||
|
JPY |
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Jul) |
53.5 |
|||||||||
|
USD |
Labor Market Conditions Index (Jul) |
0.8 |
|||||||||
|
NZD |
Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.5% |
|||||||||
|
NZD |
Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) |
5% |
|||||||||
|
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor – All (YoY) |
1.8% |
|||||||||
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug
Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt
Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund
Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz
Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt
Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
Advertisement