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Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 27, 2015- Forecast– Copper, Palladium & More

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Aug 26, 2015, 11:57 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Copper tumbled again today giving up 62 points to 2.251 as traders pay little attention to the stimulus injection by the

Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 27, 2015- Forecast– Copper, Palladium & More

Metals Wednesday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper tumbled again today giving up 62 points to 2.251 as traders pay little attention to the stimulus injection by the PBOC. Palladium dipped $5.50 to 534.60.  Copper recorded nearly 1 percent loss together with the metal complex after China market opened. The metal has put on hefty loss and then gain in the past two sessions, hitting a six-year low on Monday. Fundamentals of supply and demand seemed unperturbed with steady warehouse stockpiles at COMEX and demand from China. The Financial Times quoted Diego Hernández, Antofagasta’s chief executive, that copper prices are suffering more from a negative sentiment on China than actual demand slump.

The fear that China’s appetite for commodities, from copper to coal, is falling after a decade of breakneck growth has sent prices tumbling, but the country’s sheer scale in these markets means that China will continue to shape them in the long term, even if at a slower speed.

China now buys about an eighth of the world’s oil, a quarter of its gold, almost a third of its cotton and up to half of all the major base metals. Its buying power has made the country integral to global commodities trading.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

-7.300M

1.900M

-2.300M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Jul)

-649M

-750M

-194M

   

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Jul)

-2,690M

-2,660M

-2,850M

 

 

  AUD

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q2)

1.6%

-1.5%

-0.8%

   

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgages  

 46.0k

46.0k

44.8k

   

 

copper wed

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

 

-2.5%

-4.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Aug)

 

3.1%

3.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Aug)

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

 

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  RUB

 

Central Bank reserves (USD)

 

 

362.9B

 

 

  USD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

 

3.2%

2.3%

 

 

  USD

 

GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)  

 

2.0%

2.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

274K

277K

 

 

  USD

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

1.0%

-1.8%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 26 11:10 Italy Eur 3bn 0.15% Aug 2017 CTZ

Aug 26 19:00 US Holds 2-year FRN note auction

Aug 26 12:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Aug 26 19:00 US Holds 5-year note auction

Aug 26 19:00 US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Aug 27 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% I/L Jun 2019, Sek 0.5bn 1% Jun 2025 bonds

Aug 27 19:00 US Holds 7-year note auction

Aug 28 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep

 

 

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