Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast– Copper & Palladium

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Published: Nov 12, 2015, 11:21 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Copper dipped 15 points to 2.203 hitting another new low as data from China remains weak and the US dollar continues to

Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast– Copper & Palladium

Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper dipped 15 points to 2.203 hitting another new low as data from China remains weak and the US dollar continues to gain. Palladium added $4.12 diverging from other metals as traders bought up the cheap commodity at 581.13. Copper prices have hit a new weak spot after another round of lackluster data from China spooked investors, and analysts at Goldman Sachs don’t anticipate an improvement.

The continued weakness in the red metal – seen as an economic bellwether because it’s used in a wide range of products and industrial applications—came as data from China on Wednesday showed factory output slowed to a seven-month low of 5.6 percent in October, while investment expansion slipped to the weakest pace since 2000.

Copper’s story is not encouraging despite an earlier slowdown in supply growth, because output from previous investment will come on-stream just as cuts in consumption bite. Poor Chinese data pushed the base metals lower early yesterday and at the day’s lows they were down an average of 1.7 percent, skewed by 3.3 percent falls in lead and zinc. By the close, prices had rebounded to being up an average of 0.6 percent, with lead down 0.6 percent, but zinc had recovered, it closed up 1.3 percent at $1,627, having been as low at $1,553.50. Copper was off one percent at the day’s low of $4,885, but it closed down 0.2 percent at $4,926 and nickel closed up the most with a 1.7 percent gain to $9,670.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Oct)	53.3		55.4
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Oct)	49%	45%	44%
AUD	Employment Change (Oct)	58.6K	15.0K	-0.8K
AUD	Full Employment Change (Oct)	40.0K		-10.4K
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	5.9%	6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Oct)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CNY	New Loans	514.0B	800.0B	1,050.0B
EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		-0.1%	-0.5%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		270K	276K
USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)		5.370M	5.370M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		1.016M	2.847M
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 13, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.2%	0.1%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.8%	1.6%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.3%	0.4%
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.7%	1.5%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.4%	0.4%
EUR	Trade Balance (Sep)		18.2B	11.2B
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.3%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.4%	-0.3%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	-0.5%
USD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.3%	0.1%
USD	Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		84.0	82.1
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)		91.5	90.0
USD	FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			572