Marriott Is Well Worth Watching Ahead of Q4 Earnings

Marriott International Inc., an American multinational and diversified hospitality company,  is expected to report higher earnings and revenues in the last quarter, largely driven by increased vaccination rates and the relaxation of travel restrictions as more people took advantage of the holiday period.

The Bethesda Maryland-based company would report its fourth-quarter earnings of $1.04 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 766% from $0.12 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The U.S. hotel operator would post revenue growth of more than 83% to $3.98 billion from $2.17 billion a year earlier. The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in most of the quarters in the last two years, at least.

The increase in travel during the holiday quarter, as well as the easing of travel restrictions, would increase revenue. Analysts will be interested in hearing commentary on demand trends and forecasts for the year as well as information on the risks related to the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

Marriott’s better-than-expected earnings results, which will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 15 before the market opens, could help the stock scale to a fresh record high. Marriott stock traded 2.10% higher at $173.40 on Monday. The stock rose nearly 5% so far this year after surging over 25% in 2021.

Analyst Comments

“We expect US industry RevPAR to take ~4 years to recover back to 2019 levels post COVID given our corporate travel surveys suggest structural headwinds. Largest hotel brand company globally creates economies of scale, but also law of large numbers has led to lower unit growth than peers,” noted Thomas Allen, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“With the stock trading above its historical avg multiple, we see too wide a risk-reward to justify recommending, with upside/downside driven by how strong and quickly business trends return to normal post-COVID-19.”

Marriott Stock Price Forecast

Eight analysts who offered stock ratings for Marriott in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $169.13 with a high forecast of $192.00 and a low forecast of $150.00.

The average price target represents a -2.74% change from the last price of $173.90. Of those eight analysts, three rated “Buy”, five rated “Hold”, while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $158 with a high of $226 under a bull scenario and $115 under the worst-case scenario. The investment bank gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the lodging company’s stock.

Several analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Berenberg raised the target price to $165 from $130. BofA Global Research lifted the price objective to $190 from $180. Cowen and company upped the target price to $180 from $170.

Technical analysis suggests it is good to buy as 100-day Moving Average and 100-200-day MACD Oscillator shows a strong buying opportunity.

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