Moderna: Is Now the Time to Buy the Deep Value Dip?

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported Q2 2025 earnings, revealing a sharp drop in revenue and ongoing financial pressures. Despite cost-cutting efforts, losses remain steep, and the stock has plunged more than 95% from its peak in 2021. However, the company holds a strong cash position and plans to launch multiple new products by 2028. With deep technical support and a rich pipeline ahead, investors may consider buying the stock at long-term support. This article breaks down Moderna’s earnings, technical outlook, and risks to help investors understand the opportunities for investment in Moderna.

Moderna Q2 2025 Earnings: Deep Losses and Revenue Decline

Moderna reported total revenue of $142 million in Q2 2025 earnings. This marks a sharp 41% decline from $241 million in Q2 2024. The drop came mainly from lower COVID-19 vaccine sales, which totalled $114 million. The company expects stronger demand in the second half of the year as vaccinations shift to a seasonal model.

The chart below shows that the revenue is declining due to the post-pandemic revenue collapse, signalling the urgent need for new product launches to restore growth. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and other major vaccine makers are also facing post-pandemic revenue declines, putting the entire sector under pressure as companies race to diversify their pipelines.

Moreover, the cost of sales reached $119 million in the quarter. This included $6 million in royalties, $38 million in inventory write-downs, and $52 million in unused capacity and wind-down costs. Although relatively unchanged year-over-year, the cost of sales rose significantly to 105% of net product sales, up from 62% in Q2 2024. This sharp increase underscores the financial strain caused by declining product demand.

On the other hand, the research and development (R&D) expenses totalled $700 million, down 43% year-over-year. The company spent less on clinical trials and manufacturing as several programs wound down. This reflects Moderna’s shift in focus and tighter cost control across its respiratory vaccine pipeline.

Moreover, the selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses dropped to $230 million. That’s a 14% drop from Q2 2024. Moderna cut back on consulting, personnel, and marketing costs. The company emphasised that these savings reflect its continued commitment to streamlining operations.

Moderna posted a net loss of $825 million for the quarter, as shown in the chart below. This is down from a $1.3 billion loss in Q2 2024. However, the loss per share improved to $2.13 from $3.33.

The chart below shows that the cash and short-term investments have dropped to $5.131 billion. The decline stems from ongoing R&D and operating costs. However, the balance sheet remains strong, supporting future development and potential catalysts ahead.

Is a Reversal in Moderna Brewing After 95% Crash?

Long-Term Patterns Show Bearish Trend but Deep Value Zone Ahead

The monthly chart for Moderna shows that the stock has been under intense long-term bearish pressure. However, the price has now reached its lowest level in the past five years. The chart reveals that the stock surged from a low of $11.54 in 2019 to an all-time high of $497.49 in 2021.

This surge was due to the explosive demand for its COVID-19 vaccine. The company became one of the first to deliver an mRNA-based vaccine globally. Revenue soared as governments placed massive orders. Investors responded to the strong earnings and rapid rollout. Moderna’s vaccine generated over $18 billion in annual sales at its peak. The stock surged more than 2,000% from early 2020 lows and over 4,000% from 2019 lows to its August 2021 high.

After hitting that peak, the stock formed a clear head and shoulders pattern, with the head at $497.49 and the shoulders at $189.26 and $217.25. The neckline of this pattern was at $115. Once the price broke below this neckline level, the bearish momentum accelerated. Since then, the stock has continued to decline, signalling a prolonged correction phase. The current level may represent a critical zone for long-term investors watching for signs of reversal.

The weekly chart below shows that the decline from the 2021 record high was followed by a double top pattern, signalling strong bearish price action. This technical formation marked the start of a prolonged downtrend. After the double top, a reverse symmetrical triangle emerged, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

The stock eventually triggered a clear sell signal near the $170 level, as indicated by the blue dotted line. Since then, the price has continued to fall and is now nearing a key long-term support zone between $11 and $20. This range represents a historically strong support area.

Short-Term Dip Hint at Support

The weekly chart below shows that the stock has been trading within a descending channel since the 2021 peak. Following the Q2 2025 earnings report, the price continues to decline toward the $13–$14 region. This area is considered strong long-term support, and a rebound from this zone is likely.

If the stock finds support here, it could potentially recover and trend toward the $100 region over time. The strong resistance for Moderna lies between $110 and $120. A confirmed breakout above this range would signal the start of a long-term bullish reversal in Moderna’s stock price.

The daily chart for Moderna shows the formation of a falling wedge pattern, which was broken to the upside near the $28 neckline. However, the Q2 earnings release triggered a sharp decline, and the price has fallen back within the wedge pattern.

As noted earlier, the long-term trend for Moderna remains bearish. Still, the stock is now approaching a key support zone between $10 and $20. A strong consolidation within this region could present a compelling buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Market Risks for Moderna

Moderna faces significant revenue pressure as post-pandemic demand for COVID-19 vaccines continues to fade. In Q2 2025, revenue dropped 41% year-over-year, highlighting the company’s urgent need to diversify its product base. The decline in vaccine sales exposes the company to high volatility and uncertainty in earnings.

At the same time, the cost structure remains a concern. Cost of sales rose to 105% of net product revenue, driven by inventory write-downs and unused manufacturing capacity. This indicates inefficiencies and weak pricing power. If new product launches are delayed or underperform, Moderna may continue to operate at a loss and burn through cash.

From a technical perspective, the stock is under long-term bearish pressure. It has declined over 95% from its 2021 high and is trading near multi-year support. Despite its promising pipeline, investor sentiment remains low. If regulatory setbacks or trial failures occur, the stock could fall further and erode investor confidence.

Should Investors Buy Moderna Stock Now?

Moderna stock has fallen over 95% from its 2021 peak, but that doesn’t mean the story is over. The company still holds a strong cash position and a promising late-stage pipeline. Moderna plans to launch up to new products by 2028, with candidates in oncology, rare diseases, and respiratory viruses. This could diversify its revenue stream and reduce reliance on pandemic-era products.

Moderna expects to break even on an operating cash cost basis by 2028. It also aims to deliver $6 billion in annual revenue. That may not match the $18 billion from peak COVID sales, but it’s a solid goal in a normalised market. The pipeline includes vaccines for CMV, Norovirus, and a personalised cancer vaccine. These areas represent multibillion-dollar markets with minimal competition. If even half of these candidates succeed, Moderna could see a meaningful growth rebound.

Now could be a rare opportunity for long-term investors. The market cap sits near $11 billion, with the stock trading below $30. Sentiment is weak, but the fundamentals are quietly improving. As new product approvals roll out and earnings recover, investor confidence may return.

In conclusion, Moderna faces serious near-term challenges, including falling revenue, high costs, and weak sentiment. However, the stock now trades near long-term support with future growth potential. Investors may consider buying the stock within the range of $11 to $25 and look for long-term growth. For long-term investors, this may be a rare chance to buy a beaten-down biotech with real recovery potential.