Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakout Above $4.45 Tests Upper Channel Resistance

Monday’s Breakout Action

Buyers drove natural gas to a fresh trend high of $4.51 Monday, surpassing Friday’s peak before an intraday pullback trimmed gains, leaving the session down at writing. A higher low at $4.26 and an outside day—briefly breaching Friday’s low—distinguish today’s action, reinforcing short-term strength.

Key Resistance Levels

The rally cleared the 161.8% ABCD projection at $4.45, measured from August’s corrective low (A), but fell just short of a 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $4.54. The 78.6% retracement at $4.41 and the top channel line (150% extension of the original rising channel) continue to define resistance, with today’s high pushing further above that line.

Channel Dynamics

Price is poised for a potential second close above the 150% channel line, a feat achieved only once before in this advance. Sustained demand could propel natural gas toward the next channel line at the 175% extension. Five days of relentless testing against the top channel line with minimal pullback highlight exceptional bullish conviction.

Broader Trend Context

The March $4.90 peak—8.7% above today’s high—saw a fleeting one-day spike ending in a bearish doji shooting star, suggesting light supply in the $4.45–$4.90 range. The long-term bull trend regained traction in late October, confirmed by reclaiming the 200-day moving average, breaking a downtrend line, and surpassing a prior swing high (B).

Correction Risk Assessment

Six days of quasi-sideways action with an upward tilt may constitute a minor correction, but the rally’s extension increases pullback risk. A break below today’s $4.26 low signals near-term weakness; the six-day low at $4.18 is more critical, with the 10-day moving average at $4.11 offering initial dynamic support.

Outlook

Natural gas remains firmly bullish, with the $4.51 breakout and outside day reinforcing demand toward $4.54 and potentially the 175% channel line. A drop below $4.26–$4.18 would target $4.11 support, but sustained strength above the 150% channel line keeps higher targets in play. The next few sessions will clarify if correction pressures intensify.

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