Dow Jones Industrial Average (US 30) dips, Nasdaq Composite follows; Wall Street navigates a maze of rate hikes and global concerns.
Wall Street witnessed a bearish opening on Friday, with significant drops in major indexes. The technology and growth sectors were impacted as optimism about the resilient U.S. economy stoked concerns of prolonged higher interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened with a 0.31% dip, the S&P 500 saw a 0.58% decrease, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by nearly 1%. This decline is significant, with the Dow heading towards its worst week since March and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq poised for a third consecutive weekly loss.
Following the Federal Reserve’s July minutes hinting at future rate hikes due to inflation concerns, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to levels not witnessed since October 2022. Despite these elevated levels, yields receded slightly on Friday. It’s evident that investors are closely monitoring the economic landscape, particularly regarding inflation and the Federal Reserve’s monetary approach. The Fed’s documentation indicated potential further rate adjustments, asserting that inflation levels remain troubling. The central bank’s recent history of interest rate hikes, with 11 in the past twelve meetings, underscores its aggressive stance on inflation.
While the Federal Reserve’s actions aim to temper the economy and mitigate inflation, the consequences of these hikes present a diverse picture. Despite inflationary pressures showing signs of relenting, the labor market remains robust. Contrary to fears, the U.S. economy hasn’t been pushed into a recession due to these high rates. On a broader scale, markets grapple with challenges such as China’s economic deceleration and ever-looming high U.S. interest rates, shaking global confidence. Noteworthy developments like Evergrande’s bankruptcy and the anticipated Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium further muddy the waters for investors.
With several economic indicators on the horizon, next week promises to be eventful. The impending Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and flash PMI readings from major economies, especially the U.S., hold significant weight. Recent growth in the U.S. has surpassed expectations, but market experts believe there’s still room for a downturn once geopolitical and macroeconomic risks are fully considered. The global economic landscape, characterized by issues in Latin America, Africa, and China, suggests a substantial market downside that remains unaccounted for.
Given the blend of domestic economic indicators and global concerns, Wall Street seems to tread with caution. The collective sentiment leans towards a bearish outlook, driven by looming rate hikes, global economic challenges, and unpriced market risks. Investors should brace for potentially turbulent times ahead.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.