Investors focused on Powell's remark that the rate-setting committee expects inflation to decrease gradually, impacting the S&P 500.
The major US stock indexes are lower late Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points. The move was widely expected. The central bank also signaled it could pause rate hikes through a change in its statement.
The indexes were edging higher shortly after the release of the headline interest decision and monetary policy statement, but began to pullback shortly after Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell began his press conference.
During the press conference, the selling continued as Powell didn’t mention the possibility of a rate cut before the year-end, which investors were hoping for.
At 19:30 GMT, the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 33451.82, down 232.71 or 0.69%. The benchmark S&P 500 Index is at 4096.75, down 22.83 or -0.55% and the tech-weighted NASDAQ 100 is trading 12043.08, down 37.42 or -0.31%.
“In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments,” the Fed said in a statement.
However, traders were focusing on what the Fed didn’t say this time in its post-meeting statement. The central bank has altered its stance on future rate increases, indicating a shift in policy. They omitted the line from the previous statement that suggested further tightening might be necessary.
Powell commented to the press after the statement’s release that dropping that language was a “meaningful change” and that the central bank’s June decision would be driven by incoming data.
Some analysts believe that Wednesday’s rate increase will likely be the last one in this cycle.
The Fed is concerned that tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity and hiring, while helping maintain disinflation trend. Credit tightening is about to cripple the economy. And it appears that as long as we don’t get a perfect storm of hotter-than-expected labor and inflation data, the Fed will keep rates on hold for at the very least till the end of the year.
During his press conference, Powell failed to deliver the dovish tone that investors were anticipating. Instead, investors focused on Powell’s comment about the rate-setting committee’s view on inflation, which is expected to decline slowly. Powell noted that it would not be appropriate to cut rates if this forecast is correct, which further dampened market sentiment. As a result, the major averages turned lower.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.