Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Hold Gains as Nvidia, AMD Navigate Trump’s China Chip Deal

Chips on the Table: Nvidia and AMD Ride a Wild Tape After Trump’s 15% China Deal

Well, this is a new one. Washington’s decided that if Nvidia and AMD want to keep selling certain AI chips into China, they can — but Uncle Sam gets a 15% cut of the revenues. No one’s really seen an export control morph into a direct government revenue stream like this before.

The deal covers Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308, and I think it’s safe to say it changes the rulebook — export licenses are now a cash register for the Treasury. That being said, 85% of something still beats 100% of nothing, and that’s what traders are wrestling with today.

Market Reaction: Up, Down, and All Around

The market’s not exactly sure what to do with this yet. Nvidia and AMD both opened soft in premarket after the news broke — but when headlines started hitting that export licenses were indeed being granted, bids stepped in.

By mid-morning, Nvidia was in the green, AMD too, but we’ve seen some intraday chop as traders weigh “hey, revenue’s back” against “wait, the government’s now a partner in the business?” I believe that tug-of-war is going to be the theme in the near term — the early price action is telling you this isn’t a one-way trade.

Street View: Focus on the Numbers, Not the Risk

Wells Fargo wasted no time hiking Nvidia’s target to $220, calling the China market too big to ignore — $23 billion potential for NVDA, $5 billion for AMD, even at 85% retention. That’s a hard math problem to walk away from. But again, I think the bigger-picture traders will keep asking: if 15% works, what’s to stop it from being 20%, 25%, or a “one-time adjustment” that becomes permanent? This feels open-ended, and markets hate undefined risk.

Competitive Pressure: Price Ceilings and Local Champions

If you’re in Beijing right now, you’re smiling — this makes U.S. chips more expensive, which is exactly what Huawei and others need to keep eating into market share. The 15% levy probably gets passed along to Chinese buyers, making NVDA and AMD feel like luxury imports. More likely than not, that accelerates the split between U.S. and Chinese AI ecosystems. And once customers switch suppliers, they don’t always come back — even if pricing changes later.

Trading Outlook: Dip-Buyers Still Lurking

From a pure trading standpoint, Nvidia’s got short-term support in the 177.00–178.00 zone, with resistance at the 183.88 all-time high from early August.

AMD’s looking at a floor near 157.80 and a ceiling up at 182.50. I think dip-buyers are still out there — especially funds that missed the summer run — but we’ll see how that plays out if the constitutional challenge chatter gains traction.

This isn’t the kind of headline risk you can model easily, and quite frankly, it’s the kind that can gap you overnight.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.