NASDAQ Index, SP500, Dow Jones Forecasts: Employment Reports, FOMC and Fed Rate Decision Set to Drive Trends

By:

Published: Jan 28, 2024, 09:30 GMT+00:00

NASDAQ, SP500, and Dow Jones brace for a significant week as crucial employment reports, FOMC statement, and housing market data take center stage.

Key Insights

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, CB Consumer Confidence reports to impact market sentiment on housing and spending.
ADP Employment, Employment Cost Index, and Chicago PMI data set to influence labor and manufacturing sectors.
Federal Funds Rate decision and FOMC Statement crucial for future monetary policy, affecting NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

The upcoming week is set to be a crucial one for U.S. financial markets, with a series of economic reports poised to influence the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indices. Key housing data will be in focus on Tuesday, with the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y expected to come in at 5.8%, potentially affecting market views on real estate stability. Consumer sentiment will also be gauged with the CB Consumer Confidence report, anticipated at 113.9, alongside labor market insights from JOLTS Job Openings, projected at 8.73M.

Wednesday’s lineup includes the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, forecasted at 143K, and the Employment Cost Index q/q, expected at 1.0%. These will offer vital clues on employment trends and labor costs. The Chicago PMI, estimated at 47.9, will provide a snapshot of manufacturing sector health. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Funds Rate decision, anticipated to hold steady at 5.50%, along with the FOMC Statement, will be closely watched for indications of future monetary policy direction.

As the week progresses, on Thursday, OPEC-JMMC Meetings will shed light on oil market trends, while Unemployment Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI, predicted at 211K and 47.0 respectively, will further inform market sentiments.

Finally, Friday’s labor market data, including Non-Farm Employment Change (expected at 177K) and Unemployment Rate (forecasted at 3.8%), will round off a week filled with critical economic insights, all of which are crucial in shaping the forecast and movement of these major U.S. indices.

Let’s delve into technical outlook of these NASDAQ, S&P 500, and DJIA.

SPX SP500 Price Forecast

SPX SP500 – Chart

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week on a positive note at $4890.96, up by 1.06%. The pivot point stands at $4,902.08, and the index faces immediate resistance at $4,921.52, followed by higher resistances at $4,947.45 and $4,974.55. Conversely, support levels are established at $4,859.07, $4,830.79, and $4,808.40.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $4,689.21, while the 200-day EMA is lower at $4,442.29, both suggesting underlying strength.

Chart patterns indicate that SPX is entering an overbought zone near $4900, with the formation of a Doji candlestick pattern below this level hinting at potential for a bearish correction. In conclusion, the overall trend for SPX is currently bearish below the $4900 mark

Dow Price Forecast

DJIA Chart

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) concluded its weekly trading with a positive stride, closing at 38,096.30, up by 0.60%. The DJIA’s pivot point is at $37,775.63, with immediate resistance situated at $38,203.87.

Additional resistance points are identified at $38,505.00 and $38,901.31. Conversely, immediate support lies at $37,109.48, followed by lower supports at $36,690.43 and $36,254.03.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $36,846.25, and the 200-day EMA is at $35,074.87, both suggesting underlying market support.

Current chart patterns indicate the Dow is forming a rising wedge, a formation often associated with a potential downtrend. However, as long as the index sustains above the pivot point of $37,775.63, an upward trend remains likely. In conclusion, the overall trend for the Dow Jones is bullish above the $37,775.63 threshold.

NASDAQ Price Forecast

NASDAQ – Chart

The NASDAQ concluded the week on an upswing, closing at 17,421.01, a modest gain of 0.62%. The index’s pivot point is established at $15,605.21, facing immediate resistance at $15,728.41, followed by additional resistances at $15,858.84 and $15,989.28.

In terms of support, the first significant level is at $15,387.82 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), followed by $15,264.63 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $15,155.93 (50% Fibonacci retracement). The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is recorded at $14,695.99, with the 200-day EMA lower at $13,697.88, both indicating long-term trends.

Current chart patterns reveal that the NASDAQ is forming bearish candles just below the $15,600 level, suggesting that the index, currently in an overbought state, could be poised for a bearish correction. Conclusively, the trend for NASDAQ is bearish below the pivotal mark of $15,605.21.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

Editors’ Picks