Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow: Indices Climb on Meta and Amazon Gains, Eyes on US NFP

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Updated: Feb 2, 2024, 13:09 GMT+00:00

With Meta's first dividend and Amazon's rebound, the U.S. stock market eyes the impact of upcoming NFP data on future economic policies.

Key Insights

U.S. indices gain on tech sector boosts, Meta’s dividend, and Amazon’s profit rebound; Apple’s China sales disappoint.
January’s job report expected to show slowdown, with 187,000 new jobs and a slight uptick in unemployment to 3.8%.
Nonfarm payroll outcomes could influence Fed’s future rate decisions, affecting overall market sentiment and U.S. index performance.

Eyes on Nonfarm Payroll Report

The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite all saw gains, with significant contributions from the tech sector, notably Meta Platforms announcing its first dividend and a substantial buyback plan following a tripling in profits. Amazon reported a return to profit, while Apple’s disappointing sales in China hinted at competitive pressures.

The focus now shifts to the nonfarm payroll report, with expectations set for 187,000 new jobs in January, a deceleration from December’s 216,000, and the unemployment rate projected to increase slightly to 3.8%.

This data, coupled with average hourly earnings growth slowing to 0.3%, will provide critical insights into the labor market’s health and the potential impact on U.S. indices.

A weaker-than-expected jobs report could signal the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes are beginning to affect the economy, influencing future rate decisions and investor sentiment.

SPX SP500 Price Forecast

SPX SP500 – Chart

The S&P 500 index (SPX)’s pivot point is established at $4880.34 along with resistance levels are identified at $4929.72, $4966.37, and $5009.27, marking potential targets for continued gains. Support levels, delineated by key Fibonacci retracement points, are found at $4848.53 (38.2%), $4822.41 (50%), and $4797.72 (61.8%), offering critical junctures for potential pullbacks.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4808.87 and the 200-day EMA at $4598.84 reinforce the bullish trend, underpinning the index’s recent climb above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a strong upward momentum.

The S&P 500’s technical outlook remains bullish as long as it sustains above the pivot point of $4880.34, pointing towards a potential continuation of the current rally.

Dow Price Forecast

DJIA Chart

The Dow Jones Industrial Average navigates just below a pivot point of $38548.48. Immediate resistance is charted at $38704.26, with subsequent barriers at $38823.25 and $38944.28, outlining potential ceilings for upward price action. Conversely, support lies at $38371.85, extending to $38251.36 and $38101.71, indicating significant levels for any downturns.

Technical analysis reveals the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $38168.50 and the 200-day EMA at $37496.05, both supporting the index’s upward trajectory.

However, a double top pattern just below the pivot suggests a cap on bullish momentum. Doji candle formations near this level hint at potential for a reversal. The DOW Jones shows a bearish inclination below $38548.48.

NASDAQ Price Forecast

NASDAQ – Chart

The NASDAQ Composite stands at a pivotal point with its pivot at $15276.34, observed through a 4-hour chart analysis. It faces upward resistance at $15412.62, $15632.38, and $15786.33, marking thresholds for potential bullish momentum.

Conversely, immediate support is noted at 15167.86, reflecting a 50% Fibonacci retracement, with further support at $15057.1 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and $14886.34, suggesting crucial levels for reversals.

The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $15125.12 and $14348.81, respectively, underscore a bullish sentiment, supporting the index’s potential to sustain an uptrend above the pivot point. The alignment of EMAs along with the current positioning above the pivot underpins a continued buying trend.

The NASDAQ exhibits a bullish demeanor above the $15276.34 level, suggesting an anticipatory stance for testing higher resistance levels in the near term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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