Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow: Indices Respond to Powell’s Words and Rising Treasury Yields

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Published: Feb 5, 2024, 13:49 GMT+00:00

Powell's remarks and rising Treasury yields have recalibrated market expectations, leading to increased bullish sentiment across Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow

Key Insights

Powell’s stance on rate cuts recalibrates market expectations, impacting Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow’s investor sentiment.
Treasury yield increase reflects market’s adjusted rate cut outlook; focus on upcoming earnings and Fed insights.
S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ forecasts show bullish trends, supported by technical indicators and recent performance above pivot points.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

U.S. stock steady as Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, countered expectations of swift rate cuts, emphasizing the need for more proof of lasting inflation decline. His remarks, alongside strong job data, suggest a cautious Federal Reserve, impacting investor sentiment across Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow, which recently hit record highs, driven by robust earnings from major firms like Meta Platforms and Amazon.com.

Treasury yields rose, reflecting a recalibration of rate cut hopes, with the market now seeing a 64% chance of a cut by May and nearly 95% by June.

This week’s focus includes earnings from significant companies and insights from Fed officials, influencing market direction and investor strategies in a tight credit environment.

SPX SP500 Price Forecast

SPX SP500 – Chart

On a 4-hour chart, the S&P 500 (SPX)‘s pivot point is at 4954.29. Resistance levels are identified at 4981.09, 5018.15, and 5045.10, while support levels are noted at 4929.20, 4899.56, and 4846.62.

The 50-day EMA at 4820.15 and the 200-day EMA at 4605.90 both underscore a bullish momentum, suggesting a strong underpinning trend. Given the index’s performance above the pivot of 4954.29, the outlook remains bullish.

This is further corroborated by the positioning of EMAs, signaling sustained upward movement if the index stays above the pivot level.

Dow Price Forecast

DJIA Chart

On the 4-hour chart, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)’s places the pivot point at $38,563.06. Facing upward, immediate resistance levels are pegged at $38,704.26, $38,823.25, and $38,944.28. On the downside, supports are identified at $38,371.85, $38,251.36, and $38,101.71.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is set at $38,268.2, while the 200-day EMA stands at $37,569.0, both signaling an overarching bullish trend.

The Dow’s stance above its pivot of $38,563.06 underlines a positive outlook, bolstered by the ascending movement in its EMAs, suggesting sustained upward momentum if it stays above this critical level.

NASDAQ Price Forecast

NASDAQ – Chart

The NASDAQ Composite Index’s pivot point is precisely at $15,628.95. Looking upwards, the index encounters resistance at $15,746.27, $15,904.66, and $16,107.50.

Conversely, immediate support is found at $15,523.98, with subsequent levels at $15,385.05 and $15,159.98. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) aligns at $15,162.62, and the 200-day EMA at $14,373.84, both indicating a bullish momentum.

With the index hovering around its pivot, the stance is definitively bullish above $15,628.95, signifying potential for further gains if it remains above this threshold.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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