Natural Gas and Oil Analysis: Geopolitical Tensions Drive 6% Weekly Surge in Prices

By:

Published: Feb 9, 2024, 12:20 GMT+00:00

Brent and WTI surge nearly 6% due to Middle East tensions, underscoring global oil market's sensitivity to geopolitical shifts. While Natural gas sees a 3.16% drop amidst complex global dynamics, including new U.S. sanctions and Chinese economic pressures.

Oil Prices Steady Amid Middle East Tensions and Global Dynamics

Oil prices remained relatively steady on Friday, with both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude experiencing minor adjustments, yet poised for a nearly 6% weekly gain amidst ongoing Middle East tensions.

This is after Israel declined a ceasefire proposal from Hamas, escalating conflicts particularly around Rafah. The situation has introduced a conflict-premium into oil prices, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments.

Despite the tensions, there has been no direct impact on oil production, even as non-OPEC countries like Norway and Guyana ramp up output and Russia’s exports exceed OPEC+ commitments due to refinery issues.

Additionally, new U.S. sanctions on entities and a tanker for breaching the Russian oil price cap, coupled with deflationary pressures in China, are influencing global oil price dynamics.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) on February 9, 2024, reflects a significant downtrend, with the price decreasing by 3.16% to $1.8380. This movement underscores a bearish market sentiment as prices dip well below the pivot point of $1.9702.

The resistance levels are set at $2.2085, $2.3750, and $2.5578, marking the thresholds for potential upward movements. Conversely, immediate support levels are identified at $1.8429, with further supports at $1.6536 and $1.5002, indicating the areas where price declines may find a floor.

The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, positioned at $2.4274 and $2.9010 respectively, further accentuate the bearish trend, as the current price remains substantially below these averages.

This technical landscape suggests a continued bearish outlook for Natural Gas unless it surpasses the pivotal $1.9702 mark.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL’s technical analysis for February 9, 2024, reveals a modest uptick, with prices rising by 0.19% to reach $76.25. Positioned just above the pivot point of $76.05, USOIL hints at a bullish inclination in the immediate term.

The resistance levels are identified at $77.25, $78.30, and $79.27, each representing potential obstacles for upward price movement. On the downside, support levels at $75.42, $74.22, and $72.37 provide layers of protection against declines.

Both the 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, at $74.67 and $74.36 respectively, reinforce a bullish outlook, given that the price maintains its stance above these averages.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

UKOIL’s technical landscape on February 9, 2024, mirrors a slight downward adjustment, marking a 0.21% decrease to settle at $81.55. This movement places it intriguingly above the pivot point of $81.31, suggesting a possible bullish sentiment in the short term.

Resistance levels are mapped out at $82.73, $84.08, and $85.43, potentially capping upward moves. Conversely, support figures are established at $80.00, $78.67, and $76.61, which could provide floors to bearish dips.

The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, at $79.84 and $79.48 respectively, underscore a bullish trend as long as prices hover above these markers.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.