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Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: API Reports 7.1M Barrel Build, Crude Sentiment Weakens

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: Jul 9, 2025, 06:19 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • WTI crude hovers near $68 after a 7.1M barrel inventory build, shaking confidence in near-term demand strength.
  • API's surprise crude stockpile increase far exceeded the expected draw, pressuring global oil sentiment.
  • Red Sea attacks stoke supply fears, but rising U.S. stockpiles and tariff concerns dominate oil market outlook.
Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: API Reports 7.1M Barrel Build, Crude Sentiment Weakens

Market Overview

WTI crude futures hovered near $68 per barrel on Wednesday, shedding earlier gains as geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. inventories pressured sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise 7.1 million-barrel build in crude stockpiles, well above the expected 2.8 million-barrel draw.

Meanwhile, concerns over global trade intensified after officials confirmed no extension to the August 1 tariff deadline. In contrast, renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes revived fears of supply disruptions along a key energy corridor.

Adding to the volatility, the EIA trimmed its 2025 U.S. output forecast due to subdued prices and slower drilling activity, dampening long-term production expectations.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart
Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural gas is trading inside a descending triangle, with price compressing toward the apex near $3.30. The 50-EMA ($3.397) and 200-EMA ($3.588) remain above current levels, reinforcing bearish momentum. Price action shows repeated rejection near the triangle’s upper boundary and fading volume on each bounce.

Immediate support lies at $3.276, with a breakdown risking a move toward $3.222 or $3.169. On the upside, a clean breakout above $3.376 and trendline resistance would be needed to challenge $3.447 and $3.503.

Candlestick structure favors sellers, with long upper wicks and small-bodied candles forming near key resistance. Bears may eye short entries below $3.30, while bulls await confirmation of a breakout from this narrowing range.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart
WTI Price Chart

WTI crude oil is consolidating within a rising parallel channel after bouncing off support at $67.75. The price is testing the channel’s midline near $68.05, while the 50-EMA ($67.66) and 200-EMA ($67.07) are sloping upward—reinforcing bullish sentiment.

Recent candles indicate indecision just above the trendline support, suggesting that buyers are defending this zone. A break above $68.69 may open the path to $69.28 and $69.86. Failure to hold $67.75 could expose $67.26 and $66.49 as downside targets.

The structure resembles a potential flag formation, with higher lows indicating accumulation. Traders may consider long entries on bullish confirmation above $68.69 or wait for a retest of $67.75 with a tight stop, targeting the upper trendline.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart
Brent Price Chart

Brent crude is trading inside a rising channel, with price currently hovering near $69.91 after facing resistance at $70.62. The recent pullback remains contained within the bullish structure, with price finding support near the 50-EMA at $68.99. The 200-EMA at $69.13 is flattening, hinting at a short-term consolidation.

Candlesticks show lower wicks near trendline support, signaling buying interest around $69.11. A breakout above $70.62 could clear the way toward $71.93 and $73.07. On the downside, a break below $69.11 may test $67.32.

With the channel intact, bulls may consider dip entries near the midline, while conservative traders could wait for confirmation above $70.62 before targeting upper resistance.

About the Author

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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