Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: API Reports 7.1M Barrel Build, Crude Sentiment Weakens

Market Overview

WTI crude futures hovered near $68 per barrel on Wednesday, shedding earlier gains as geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. inventories pressured sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise 7.1 million-barrel build in crude stockpiles, well above the expected 2.8 million-barrel draw.

Meanwhile, concerns over global trade intensified after officials confirmed no extension to the August 1 tariff deadline. In contrast, renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes revived fears of supply disruptions along a key energy corridor.

Adding to the volatility, the EIA trimmed its 2025 U.S. output forecast due to subdued prices and slower drilling activity, dampening long-term production expectations.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading inside a descending triangle, with price compressing toward the apex near $3.30. The 50-EMA ($3.397) and 200-EMA ($3.588) remain above current levels, reinforcing bearish momentum. Price action shows repeated rejection near the triangle’s upper boundary and fading volume on each bounce.

Immediate support lies at $3.276, with a breakdown risking a move toward $3.222 or $3.169. On the upside, a clean breakout above $3.376 and trendline resistance would be needed to challenge $3.447 and $3.503.

Candlestick structure favors sellers, with long upper wicks and small-bodied candles forming near key resistance. Bears may eye short entries below $3.30, while bulls await confirmation of a breakout from this narrowing range.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is consolidating within a rising parallel channel after bouncing off support at $67.75. The price is testing the channel’s midline near $68.05, while the 50-EMA ($67.66) and 200-EMA ($67.07) are sloping upward—reinforcing bullish sentiment.

Recent candles indicate indecision just above the trendline support, suggesting that buyers are defending this zone. A break above $68.69 may open the path to $69.28 and $69.86. Failure to hold $67.75 could expose $67.26 and $66.49 as downside targets.

The structure resembles a potential flag formation, with higher lows indicating accumulation. Traders may consider long entries on bullish confirmation above $68.69 or wait for a retest of $67.75 with a tight stop, targeting the upper trendline.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading inside a rising channel, with price currently hovering near $69.91 after facing resistance at $70.62. The recent pullback remains contained within the bullish structure, with price finding support near the 50-EMA at $68.99. The 200-EMA at $69.13 is flattening, hinting at a short-term consolidation.

Candlesticks show lower wicks near trendline support, signaling buying interest around $69.11. A breakout above $70.62 could clear the way toward $71.93 and $73.07. On the downside, a break below $69.11 may test $67.32.

With the channel intact, bulls may consider dip entries near the midline, while conservative traders could wait for confirmation above $70.62 before targeting upper resistance.