Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Ascending Trendline Breakout; More Sell-off Ahead?

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Updated: Mar 27, 2024, 09:44 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

U.S. crude inventories surge by 9.3 million barrels, pressuring oil prices downward.
OPEC+ likely to maintain output cuts through June, adding complexity to market forecasts.
Natural Gas and WTI show slight declines amidst varied inventory levels and OPEC+ strategies.

Market Overview

Oil prices dipped for the second consecutive day, influenced by a significant surge in U.S. crude stockpiles and the anticipation that OPEC+ may maintain its current output policy in the upcoming meeting. With a 9.3 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories and a modest rise in distillate stocks, contrasted by a 4.4 million barrel drop in gasoline stocks, market dynamics hint at potential shifts.

OPEC+’s expected continuance of existing output cuts through June, despite compliance challenges, further shapes the oil market landscape. These developments, alongside varied inventory levels, underline a complex environment for oil and potentially natural gas forecasts, as market participants gauge OPEC+ strategies and U.S. stockpile impacts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) reveals a slight decrease of 0.39%, setting the price at $1.797. The market is positioned just below the pivot point at $1.8080, suggesting a potential for directional movement. Resistance levels are pinpointed at $1.8447, $1.8756, and $1.9035, which could cap gains in the short term.

On the flip side, support levels are established at $1.7665, with further floors at $1.7261 and $1.6795, potentially bracing for pullbacks. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at $1.8185 and $1.8927 respectively, hint at a broader bearish sentiment.

The stance for Natural Gas is bearish below $1.8080, but a shift above this pivotal mark may herald a trend change towards bullish momentum.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL is trading at $80.96, marking a slight decrease of 0.39%. The critical pivot point at $81.41 serves as a juncture for potential price movement directions. Resistance levels are set at $82.29, $83.10, and $83.94, indicating the thresholds for bullish advancements.

Conversely, support levels at $80.32, $79.39, and $78.46 outline potential fallback positions. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $81.08 and $79.01 respectively, provide a mixed signal.

The overall market stance for USOIL is bearish below the $81.41 pivot, suggesting a cautious outlook with possibilities for an uptrend upon breaking above this crucial level.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

UKOIL shows a minor decline of 0.41%, with the price at $84.94. The pivot point, situated at $85.51, demarcates potential shifts in market sentiment. Resistance levels are identified at $86.46, $87.29, and $88.40, suggesting areas where upward momentum may face hurdles.

Conversely, support is found at $84.56, with further levels at $83.79 and $82.99, potentially halting declines. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $85.45 and $83.51 respectively, hint at a mixed outlook.

The overall market position for UKOIL is currently bearish below $85.51, with a crossover above this threshold possibly signaling a shift towards a more bullish orientation.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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