Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Ascending Trendline Breakout; More Sell-off Ahead?

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Updated: Mar 27, 2024, 09:44 UTC

Key Points:

U.S. crude inventories surge by 9.3 million barrels, pressuring oil prices downward.
OPEC+ likely to maintain output cuts through June, adding complexity to market forecasts.
Natural Gas and WTI show slight declines amidst varied inventory levels and OPEC+ strategies.

Market Overview

Oil prices dipped for the second consecutive day, influenced by a significant surge in U.S. crude stockpiles and the anticipation that OPEC+ may maintain its current output policy in the upcoming meeting. With a 9.3 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories and a modest rise in distillate stocks, contrasted by a 4.4 million barrel drop in gasoline stocks, market dynamics hint at potential shifts.

OPEC+’s expected continuance of existing output cuts through June, despite compliance challenges, further shapes the oil market landscape. These developments, alongside varied inventory levels, underline a complex environment for oil and potentially natural gas forecasts, as market participants gauge OPEC+ strategies and U.S. stockpile impacts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) reveals a slight decrease of 0.39%, setting the price at $1.797. The market is positioned just below the pivot point at $1.8080, suggesting a potential for directional movement. Resistance levels are pinpointed at $1.8447, $1.8756, and $1.9035, which could cap gains in the short term.

On the flip side, support levels are established at $1.7665, with further floors at $1.7261 and $1.6795, potentially bracing for pullbacks. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at $1.8185 and $1.8927 respectively, hint at a broader bearish sentiment.

The stance for Natural Gas is bearish below $1.8080, but a shift above this pivotal mark may herald a trend change towards bullish momentum.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL is trading at $80.96, marking a slight decrease of 0.39%. The critical pivot point at $81.41 serves as a juncture for potential price movement directions. Resistance levels are set at $82.29, $83.10, and $83.94, indicating the thresholds for bullish advancements.

Conversely, support levels at $80.32, $79.39, and $78.46 outline potential fallback positions. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $81.08 and $79.01 respectively, provide a mixed signal.

The overall market stance for USOIL is bearish below the $81.41 pivot, suggesting a cautious outlook with possibilities for an uptrend upon breaking above this crucial level.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

UKOIL shows a minor decline of 0.41%, with the price at $84.94. The pivot point, situated at $85.51, demarcates potential shifts in market sentiment. Resistance levels are identified at $86.46, $87.29, and $88.40, suggesting areas where upward momentum may face hurdles.

Conversely, support is found at $84.56, with further levels at $83.79 and $82.99, potentially halting declines. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $85.45 and $83.51 respectively, hint at a mixed outlook.

The overall market position for UKOIL is currently bearish below $85.51, with a crossover above this threshold possibly signaling a shift towards a more bullish orientation.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.