Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Asia Demand Hopes Offset by Bearish Supply Outlook

Market Overview

WTI crude leapt back above $57 a barrel, clawing back some of the 2% it had lost the prior session, as markets tried to make sense of shifting demand signals against a backdrop of still-existing – and ever-present – geopolitical uncertainty.

A positive note came when China hinted at increasing its fiscal outlay in 2026, which, more or less, confirmed what many had been expecting: stronger-than-expected energy demand for oil and gas in Asia next year. Of course, at the same time, there’s still plenty of diplomatic wrangling in various hotspots around the world, keeping traders on their toes in case the supply flow situation changes, say, with some easing of export restrictions.

But despite all this, the overall trend remains fragile. Oil prices have been in a bit of a tailspin this year – they’re down a whopping 20% – the most significant annual drop since 2020, with all the extra oil coming on stream putting the fear of a supply surplus next year and limiting any potential upside for the energy markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas prices are currently hovering around $3.79, having somewhat eased off after a failed attempt to break through the $3.95-$4.00 resistance zone on the 4-hour chart. The price is still held back by a downtrend line drawn from that early December high of $4.90, which keeps the overall trend pointing lower.

The recent action on the chart shows a lot of rejection around $3.95, suggesting sellers are pretty active at the trendline resistance level, rather than buyers going in all guns blazing to push prices higher. You can see the 50-period exponential moving average has flattened out around $3.80, while the 100-period EMA, around $3.95, is acting as stubborn resistance.

There is support holding firm around $3.55, which is right in line with a previous base level, and also a minor Fibonacci retracement level from the last rebound. The idea is to sell near the $3.90 resistance zone, targeting a hit at $3.55, and to set a stop-loss just above $4.05.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading at just shy of $57.40, trying to find some stability after a pretty sharp drop back from that $58.80-$59.00 resistance zone it’s been stuck against lately. The very latest price action, though, shows some long lower wicks around $56.60.

The 50 ema is just dabbling with the $57.50 mark right now, while the 100 EMA above $58.80 is still the key area overhead that price is struggling to get past – it’s just still a bit of an obstacle standing in the way. RSI has actually bounced its way back up into the 45-50 area.

A fib retracement of the last bit of upswing lands right around $56.60-$56.80 – that’s a handy spot for a bit of support. The trade idea is if you can get a break above $56.60, then the strategy is to hold on for a run up to $58.80 – and you’d cut your losses if you go below $55.90.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is hovering around $60.90 again, steadying out after a nasty rejection from that resistance zone around $62.20-$62.30 – basically the ceiling it hit and bounced off. On the 4-hour chart, the price is stuck in a tight squeeze between a downward trend line from way back in December and an upward line of support from the low point a week or so ago around $58.70.

The 50 EMA is all flat near $61.20 – but you can forget about the 100 EMA – it’s still at $62.20 and refusing to let price go any higher. A check of the Fibonacci on the latest bounce shows that $60.30 to $60.00 is the sort of area you’d expect to find some buyers kicking in if it falls to it.