Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Bearish Trend in Oil as Weak China Data Weighs on Demand

Market Overview

Oil prices remain under pressure as weak Chinese economic data and shifting geopolitical dynamics cloud the demand outlook. China’s unexpected manufacturing contraction in January has raised concerns over slowing global crude consumption, while new trade restrictions are disrupting Russian oil flows, tightening supply chains.

Analysts warn that independent Chinese refineries could lose up to 1 million barrels per day, leading to higher costs for alternative crude sources.

Meanwhile, milder weather in the U.S. and Europe has reduced demand for heating fuels, curbing natural gas prices. Broader financial markets remain volatile as economic and energy uncertainties persist.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices remain under pressure, trading at $3.24, down 0.06%, as bearish momentum continues to dominate. The price struggles below the pivot point at $3.81, which serves as a key inflection level. A sustained break above this could shift sentiment bullish, targeting immediate resistance at $4.05, followed by $4.21.

However, failure to reclaim the pivot keeps sellers in control, with support at $3.61 and further downside risk extending to $3.43.

Technically, the 50-EMA at $3.83 and 200-EMA at $3.79 reinforce resistance, making recovery difficult. Traders should watch for a decisive move above $3.81 for bullish confirmation or continued weakness toward support levels.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

U.S. crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $73.25, up 0.30%, but remains under pressure as it struggles below key resistance levels. The pivot point at $75.12 serves as a critical threshold; a break above this could shift momentum bullish, targeting $76.46 and $77.84.

However, failure to clear this level reinforces the current bearish trend, with immediate support at $72.51 and further downside risk toward $71.25.

The 50-EMA at $74.55 and 200-EMA at $74.98 continue to act as resistance, limiting upward movement. A downward trendline further reinforces selling pressure. Traders should monitor a potential breakout above $75.12 for bullish confirmation, while continued rejection at this level signals deeper retracement.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $77.17, up 0.34%, but remains trapped in a downward channel, reinforcing bearish momentum. The pivot point at $78.48 is a critical level—a sustained move above this could spark bullish momentum, targeting $79.86 and $81.30. However, failure to clear resistance may trigger renewed selling, with immediate support at $76.41 and a deeper pullback toward $75.10.

The 50-EMA at $78.45 and 200-EMA at $78.22 are reinforcing overhead resistance, making upside movement challenging. A breakout above $78.48 would shift sentiment bullish, while rejection at this level could extend losses.