Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Black Sea Disruptions and EMA Barriers Shape Outlook

Market Overview

Crude oil futures extended gains above $66 as global energy markets reacted to renewed geopolitical tensions and tightening supply conditions. Optimism surrounding multiple U.S. trade negotiations, including potential deals with India and Brazil, helped ease fears over weakening demand, supporting a rebound in oil prices.

Simultaneously, supply risks intensified, with disruptions in Black Sea exports and new restrictions on Russian oil inflows driving up diesel markets. Natural gas remains under pressure, but expectations of improved global trade dynamics buoy broader energy sentiment.

The combined impact of strained supply chains and diplomatic uncertainty is reinforcing volatility across crude and gas benchmarks.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures remain pressured below $3.10, consolidating just above key support at $3.057. The 50-EMA ($3.28) and 100-EMA ($3.38) are both trending lower, signaling persistent downside momentum.

Any recovery faces immediate resistance at $3.192 and stronger resistance near the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $3.191. A break below $3.057 could trigger a move toward $2.973.

To shift sentiment, bulls must reclaim $3.275 and the 38.2% Fib retracement. Until then, the short-term trend remains bearish.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is retesting resistance near $66.90 after recovering from the $64.72 support level. Price action remains capped by the 100-EMA ($66.65), with the 50-EMA ($66.32) also applying pressure. A clear break above $66.90 would expose the $67.41 level, followed by the more significant resistance at $68.63.

Failure to clear this range could lead to a pullback toward $65.34. The short-term bias remains neutral to bearish unless bulls reclaim and hold above $67.41.

Volume remains subdued, signaling a potential pause or reversal unless fresh catalysts emerge. Traders should watch for price behavior around the EMAs and horizontal levels for clearer direction into the week’s close.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is challenging the descending trendline near $69.70 after reclaiming support at $68.99. Price is now testing the upper boundary of a tightening wedge, with both the 50-EMA ($68.98) and 100-EMA ($69.00) offering immediate support.

A decisive break above $69.80 could open the path toward $70.71 and $71.49. Failure to hold current gains may lead to a drop back toward $68.40.

Until bulls clear the trendline with strong follow-through, momentum remains capped. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout attempt to validate direction.